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Economists should not make forecasts

  • Paul Donovan
    Paul Donovan

    Global Chief Economist of UBS Wealth Management

London | Fri, January 19, 2018 | 12:39 pm
Economists should not make forecasts Economic views often give a false sense of precision, because the reporting of economics is simplified and shortened.  (Shutterstock/File)

PREMIUM December always has a rash of economic forecasts for the year ahead. The reception areas at CNBC and Bloomberg TV are crowded with mobs of economists fighting to get their forecasts on air. But there are big problems with making precise economic forecasts. Economic models are not precise. Models use lots of assumptions. Those assumptions may not turn out to be true. Models give a range of possi...

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official stance of The Jakarta Post.