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Iran worries push oil prices to 4-year highs
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Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States - known as the Group of Seven (G7) - pledged in 2016 to phase out their support for fossil fuels by 2025. (Shutterstock/File)
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rude oil prices have risen to four-year highs, led mainly by concerns that the impact of United States’ sanctions on Iranian supply may be larger than expected, and a lack of clarity about exports by the Middle East supplier implies more volatility in the months ahead.
ICE Brent and NYMEX crude futures have gained around 20 percent since mid-August, with ICE Brent crude futures breaching the US$85 per barrel mark in early October.
S&P Global Platts Analytics in late September increased its forecast for cuts in Iranian oil exports from 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.7 million bpd once the sanctions take effect on Nov. 5. Platts Analytics expects Iranian crude and condensate exports to fall to 1.1 million bpd in October, and to 800,000 bpd by the fourth quarter of 2019, down from 2.91 million bpd in April.
Total estimated export volumes on Aframaxes, Suezmaxes and very large crude carriers from Iranian ports sank by 11.5 percent to 1.7 million bpd in September from 1.92 million bpd in August, according to data from S&P Global Platts trade flow software cFlow. These are the lowest exports by Iran in at least two-and-a-half-years before the West lifted sanctions in January 2016 and show key customers are making significant cuts to their Iranian imports.
