ow that the fog around the Iran sanction waivers has lifted, focus will return to supply-demand balances and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC meeting in Vienna next month.
The United States government on Nov. 5 granted temporary waivers to eight countries, including top Asian consumers China, India, South Korea and Japan, to continue importing Iranian oil. These countries have been allowed to keep importing oil from Tehran in exchange for making cuts in their import volumes in the past six months and promising to cut further in the next six months.
S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates China and India will both keep importing at least 300,000 barrels of Iranian crude per day (bpd), compared with April-May volumes of 690,000 bpd for India and 684,000 bpd for China.
South Korea is expected to be allowed to import about 4 million barrels per month of Iranian oil, but will continue to diversify its crude and condensate supply. South Korea imported an average of 12.32 million barrels per month of crude and condensate from Iran in 2017 and an average 8.34 million barrels per month over the first half of 2018, according to data from state-run Korea National Oil Corp.
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