Gunaryadi, The Hague
With the visit of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Indonesia, the issue of Iran's nuclear program -- besides that of around US$600 million in energy deals with Indonesia -- will be high on the agenda. President Ahmadinejad's trip to Indonesia is to attend the 5th D-8 Summit in Bali from May 9-13.
The Iranian nuclear issue has escalated since Ahmadinejad took office in Tehran in 2005. It is not merely about the Iranian nuclear program, but more about the fears of Ahmadinejad's threatening statements toward Israel.
The West believes Iran's nuclear program would not stop until it had reached the level of making weapons -- an accusation consistently denied by Tehran, which has adamantly reiterated its program is strictly for energy. If Tehran succeeded in getting the bomb, so goes the logic in Washington and many western capitals, it would not only change the geopolitical situation and balance of power in the region, but also pose a grave danger to U.S. interests in the Middle East and the very existence of the U.S.'s closest ally in the volatile region, Israel.
Since Ahmadinejad took power a high-level psychological warfare has begun. A preemptive strike on Iran has not been ruled out -- although officially denied in Washington and London. On the other side, Tehran says if it is attacked it will strike U.S. interests around the globe and, of course, Israel.
Amid American efforts to refer Iran to the UN Security Council, a move that could be hindered by Russia and China, Tehran threatened to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. If Iran takes this step, it would be more difficult to find a peaceful solution and a military confrontation could ensue. Many still see a political way out as the least costly route; and by the same token the diplomatic approach as the toughest one.
Caught in this brouhaha, Indonesia's position is dilemmatic. The Associated Press reported that Indonesia has confirmed its position of supporting Tehran's right to pursue nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
It is undeniable Indonesia is still dependent on the West, particularly the U.S., and has been courted over economic and many political issues. The West eyes Indonesia as a potent friend in Southeast Asia -- particularly in combating terrorism -- due to its moderate Muslim population.
If it supports Iran without emphasizing the peaceful dimension of that country's program, Indonesia could simply alienate its Western allies. Similarly, unconditionally saying ""no"" to Tehran's program could potentially cut the government's base support among the Muslim majority.
Consideration of this political support can be seen in the parallel positions confirmed by Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) leader Hasyim Muzadi and the speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly, Hidayat Nur Wahid, during their recent visit to Tehran. Both were of the opinion that Iran has the right to pursue a peaceful nuclear program.
Second, an unconditional ""no"" to Iran's nuclear program could cost Indonesia the chance to secure much-needed investment from Tehran in the energy sector. Since 2005 Indonesia has been the only OPEC member to be a net importer of oil.
Third, supporting Iran's peaceful nuclear program will also anticipate Indonesia's plan to start its own peaceful nuclear program in 2016.
Fourth, Indonesia has also voiced its concerns over any military action against Iran. This reservation has a strong basis on at least three accounts:
First, preventing the U.S. from making the same mistake it made in invading Iraq.
Second, it could spark commotion in the Muslim world.
And third, it could jeopardize efforts to combat terrorism and endanger a theme Indonesia is eager to promote in the international community post-Sept. 11: dialog between civilizations.
Its position demonstrates that as usual in its foreign policy, Indonesia is swift in taking the most pragmatic stance. This echoes the maxim of Indonesian foreign policy, introduced in 1948 by foreign minister designate Moh. Hatta, which is to be ""independent and active"". ""Independent"" here is neither being ""neutral"", or taking ""equidistant"" positions on international matters, nor ""neglecting"" developments in global affairs for Indonesia's self-preservation and prosperity.
The writer is head of the Social Sciences Department at the Netherlands' chapter of the Institute for Science and Technology Studies (ISTECS), and teaches at the Indonesian Embassy School, Wassenaar.
