PM Abe's assertive diplomacy and the almighty yen

The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Thu, 09/28/2006 9:30 AM | Opinion

Kornelius Purba, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

In his first news conference after officially replacing Junichiro Koizumi as Japanese prime minister on Tuesday, Shinzo Abe said: ""I want to make Japan a beautiful country which is trusted and respected by the countries of the world and in which children can be proud of being born.""

How to achieve that? ""I want to pursue an assertive diplomacy,"" Abe hinted.

An assertive diplomacy means that Japan will act with a higher profile and a more straightforward approach. How? Last year, in private conversations, many Japanese officials complained that Indonesia did not back Japan in its efforts to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, despite the massive amounts of money Japan has invested in and loaned to Indonesia.

Japan was reportedly upset that Indonesia refused to back its bid to join the Security Council because Jakarta was worried about upsetting Beijing. But Japanese diplomats opted to show their displeasure with vague protests, so Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda concluded that the issue was not really a serious matter for Japan.

But from now on, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will have to be prepared for more blunt complaints from Abe if similar situations arise in the future.

""Japan is the biggest money lender for Indonesia and also the biggest investor. But our taxpayers want to know what we get in return from Indonesia? How should I answer that question, Mr. President?"" Abe might say to Yudhoyono.

Can President Yudhoyono make a similarly assertive response? Obviously he could, if his government has a strong bargaining position. Indonesia could play the ""China card"", for example. Former Japanese ambassador to Indonesia Yutaka Iimura once jokingly said Indonesia often treated Japan like its first wife and China like its second.

""But don't let the old wife become overly jealous. It could be very dangerous,"" he said.

During the Koizumi era, more Japanese officials, especially the younger ones, became more candid in saying friendship means ""give and take"". Older generation officials still prefer to send traditional messages like, ""Japan will always do its best to help Indonesia.""

It is clear from Abe's remarks Tuesday that the relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is not on his top 10 list of priorities. His emphasis is on boosting relations with Japan's main ally, the United States, and rewriting the country's constitution. However, Japan is holding bilateral negotiations with ASEAN members to reach an economic partnership agreement.

Indonesia has been very slow in the negotiating process, apparently because it does not have much of a bargaining position. The Philippines, for example, is allowed to export skilled migrant workers like nurses to Japan, but Tokyo will only accept blue-collar workers and maids from Indonesia.

Restoring deteriorating diplomatic ties with China and South Korea should be another top priority for Japan.

Bilateral summits with Chinese President Hu Jintao and South Korea President Roh Moo-hyun should be mandatory for Abe. It is not likely that he will visit Beijing or Seoul. So meeting President Hu and President Roh on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in Hanoi, Vietnam, in November is very likely.

A second round of summits could be held in the Philippines a month later when ASEAN leaders confer with leaders from China, Japan, South Korea and India and other guests. Japan could use ASEAN soil as the venue for its diplomatic campaign to woo back China and South Korea.

Despite its prolonged economic recession, Japan is still the world's second most powerful economy after the United States. The question for Indonesia is, what can it do to woo back Japanese investors who have been leaving the country? As long as investment conditions in Indonesia remain as they are now, it will be difficult to get Japanese companies back when other countries like Vietnam and even Cambodia offer more friendly destinations for investors.

Japan needs strong friends among ASEAN, especially Indonesia because Jakarta has traditionally been rather hostile toward China. The government could benefit from the rivalry between China and Japan. But of course not like Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who tried to force Japan to soften its conditions for building a mass rapid transportation system in Jakarta.

Japan said it would only build the MRT if the government agreed the project would be carried out without international tenders. Kalla's side demanded the involvement of Indonesian companies in the project, threatening they could just go to China for funding. In the end, however, Indonesia quietly resumed negotiations with Japan on the MRT project following its failure to lure China.

Japan knows it needs a strong Indonesia to slow China's growing influence in Asia. The question is when will Indonesia be strong again?

The writer can be reached at purba@thejakartapost.com

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