Pyongyang 'is trying to test the waters'

The Jakarta Post ,  Jakarta   |  Fri, 10/06/2006 9:57 AM

Abdul Khalik, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

North Korea's announcement that it intends to conduct its first nuclear test is seen as a move to gauge the reaction of new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, while at the same time drawing the world's attention back from the Iranian nuclear controversy, analysts say.

""Pyongyang is only trying to test the waters to see how Abe differs from his predecessor (Junichiro) Koizumi,"" Hariyadi Wirawan, an international relations expert at the University of Indonesia, told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.

He said every time there was a change in Japanese leadership, North Korea did something provocative in order to see how the new leader handled important issues.

North Korea said Tuesday it would be compelled to carry out a nuclear weapons test due to threats and sanctions from the United States.

""I think this time they are only bluffing since they don't have the technology yet to realize their ambition,"" Hariyadi said.

International analysts have said that North Korea probably has enough fissile material to make six to eight nuclear bombs, but that it lacks the technology to make one small enough to mount on a missile.

Aside from testing Japan's new leadership, Hariyadi said, North Korea wants to keep its nuclear program at the center of the world's attention to maintain its bargaining position.

""The international community, especially the U.S., is now focusing on Iran because they think that country poses greater threats. North Korea fears that they will be forgotten,"" he said.

Begi Hersutanto, a researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), agreed that the announcement of a missile test was an effort by Pyongyang to increase its leverage against the U.S. and other countries in order to get all economic sanctions against the country lifted.

""North Korea is suffering because of the embargo and sanctions. They know that only nuclear weapons can elevate their position. The fact that they have demanded a security pact with the U.S. and a guarantee that the U.S. will not attack them also reveals that they feel highly insecure,"" he told the Post.

If North Korea indeed wanted Abe's reaction and the world's attention, they got both wishes almost instantly.

Abe quickly said Tuesday that any nuclear tests would be unacceptable, emphasizing that North Korea must realize that unless it heeded global concerns, its situation would only get worse.

The U.S. also bashed North Korea's announcement as unacceptable for world peace.

Meanwhile, Indonesia said Wednesday that the nuclear test threatened by North Korea ""would be unacceptable because in essence this is part of the proliferation of nuclear weapons"". Indonesia also urged a resumption of stalled six-nation talks with the Socialist state.

The two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States are parties to the talks aimed at persuading Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

Pyongyang has boycotted the talks since November last year and refuses to return until Washington ends a financial squeeze.

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