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Taming Kim Jong-il
The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Wed, 10/11/2006 10:08 AM | Opinion
How should the world deal with an autocrat who regards a country and its 22 million people as his private property?
What to do when someone engages in the most dangerous experiment known to man -- nuclear testing -- without a thought for the concerns of friends and neighbors?
Kim Jong-il proved Monday that nothing comes before Pyongyang's military agenda, not even regional stability.
Now we should all brace for the fallout. Not only are we on the brink of a political and military showdown, the human repercussions are potentially just as disastrous, including an exodus of refugees from North Korea.
The recalcitrance of Kim Jong-il has to end. Now.
But how?
Shouts or whispers, intimidation or cooperation, all seem to fall on deaf ears in the North Korean capital.
The nuclear test was a slap in the face of Chinese President Hu Jintao. Up until the very last minute, President Hu seemed confident that Kim would not defy the warning of North Korea's strongest and only ally of ""serious consequences"" if the test went ahead.
It was also a humiliating rebuke to South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun who, despite critics, has remained steadfast in pursuing a goodwill policy of engagement with the North.
Perhaps both Hu and Roh now realize that carrots alone are not enough to tame North Korea. A stick may also be needed, for cautionary purposes.
For new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, however, the nuclear test could be a blessing in disguise by helping his rapprochement efforts with Hu and Roh. Abe met with the two leaders Sunday and Monday, respectively, to try and repair some of the damage done to relations between the countries over the past five years under former Japanese leader Junichiro Koizumi.
There is the danger, though, that the North Korean test may give Japan's rightists and ultra-nationalists momentum in their struggle for a much stronger Japanese military. It appears unavoidable that an arms race will take place in East Asia if Kim is not reined in.
In dealing with the unpredictable Kim, who inherited power from his father Kim Il-sung in 1994, the three East Asian leaders have no choice but to work closely together to make sure the North Korean ruler does not continue his nuclear adventure with even more dangerous maneuvers.
Like a choir, world leaders condemned North Korea on Monday. Iran was perhaps the only country that took a soft stance, but that is because Teheran is also facing pressure from Western countries to give up its own nuclear program. However, Iran is a completely different case from North Korea. Iran's President Ahmadinejad was elected by the people and the country is ruled by democratic principles, while Kim rules North Korea with an iron fist.
But back to the question of who can stop Kim and his military adventurism? No doubt the United States has the capability to deal with Kim. North Korea clearly used the nuclear test to send a strong message to U.S. President George W. Bush that it wanted to deal directly with the U.S. in resolving the Korean Peninsula crisis, rather than going through the six-party talks.
While providing carrots to Pyongyang is clearly not sufficient on its own, Bush needs to realize that the stick alone also is not enough. Some combination of carrot and stick is the only viable way to control Pyongyang. A preemptive strike on North Korea's nuclear facilities should be off the menu, because as with Iraq this would only make the situation worse.
But we should also remember, as shown by the experiences of many other countries, a leader or dictator can be effectively forced from power only if the majority of his people unite to oust him.
Extraordinary measures are needed to resolve this nuclear crisis, because in Kim we are dealing with an unpredictable leader. He would likely not hesitate to use even the most monstrous means to achieve his ambitions. The United States and East Asian countries need a joint approach for handling this crisis.
Indonesia, especially former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, has a special relation with the North Korean ruler, whose father was a close friend of Megawati's father, founding president Sukarno. It is time for Megawati to use this friendship to persuade Kim to reduce the tension on the Korean Peninsula.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono had earlier planned to travel to the region to help mediate in the nuclear standoff, but canceled the mission after receiving a poor response from Kim.
Global security is a stake. We have no choice but to make sure that Kim is not allowed to realize his truly frightening ambitions. And Indonesia is expected to play its role in this most critical of efforts.
