Kornelius Purba, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
This is the sixth in a series of articles The Jakarta Post is publishing to mark President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's second anniversary in office on Oct. 20.
The country's fourth president, Abdurrahman ""Gus Dur"" Wahid, often jokingly describes his three predecessors and himself as ""crazy presidents.""
He calls first president Sukarno ""crazy about women"", since he was known as a flamboyant playboy. Second president Soeharto was ""crazy about wealth"", while B.J. Habibie, according to Gus Dur, was ""truly crazy"". He does not cite his reasons for this conclusion, but during his tenure as Soeharto's favorite minister, Habibie developed a lot of ambitious mega-projects. Many of them turned out to be unworkable.
Gus Dur was only able to rule the country for about two years. He had to resign mostly because of his erratic policies and confrontational approach. How does he describe himself?
""I make other people crazy,"" he says.
It's not clear how he would describe Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whom Gus Dur sacked as his chief minister on security affairs shortly before his fall in July 2001. But judging from Yudhoyono's tendency to surround himself with highly educated people, Gus Dur might call the retired four-star general ""crazy about doctoral degrees"". Yudhoyono himself obtained his Ph.D. from the Bogor Institute of Agriculture (IPB) just a few days before the presidential election in 2004.
Many people feel too shy or too self-important to acknowledge one thing: At least so far, he is relatively clean. That is apparently his biggest asset, compared to his five predecessors. None of them were free from at least allegations of corruption. But many things can happen in the next three years because the temptations will be so huge, especially when the 2009 elections are getting closer and he needs campaign funds for himself and his Democrat Party.
It is not easy even to hear gossip about corruption, collusion and nepotism involving the President and the First Family. Lawyer and activist Eggy Sudjana had to retract his allegation that one of Yudhoyono's sons was bribed by a prominent businessman. His two sons, one of whom is an Army officer, so far have no interest in business. Yudhoyono himself is an only child.
Let us hope his wife is able to uphold her husband's reputation, since she has more siblings and a larger extended family. She could be an entry point for people with vested interests to influence the President. To be honest, she could face more temptations. Soeharto's wife Tien was linked with mega-projects and other lucrative businesses when their children were still very young. Later the children became extremely active in business activities using their father's power.
Yudhoyono is fond of using English terms in public speeches, and he likes to be accompanied by two doctors: Dr. Dino Patti Djalal, a diplomat, and Dr. Andi Mallarangeng, a political scientist. As an Army general he was also frequently in the presence of two Batak retired Army generals: Sudi Silalahi as his Cabinet secretary and T.B. Silalahi (I don't know T.B.'s real role in the government).
While I have no doubt about the intellectual capacity of Dino and Andi, the President needs more experienced people (professional people without vested interests) in his inner circle, because the two aides lack experience. The embarrassing Nobel Peace Prize 'project' clearly shows Yudhoyono was listening to young and ambitious advisors.
There is also a tendency to have military people play more of a role around the President, as in the replacement of the head of the bureau in charge of media affairs.
Meanwhile, Vice President Jusuf Kalla has a wider inner circle, due to his position as the owner of a major business group and the chairman of the country's largest political party, Golkar. With his background in commerce, the Vice President is a down-to-earth person. That background also makes Kalla much more vulnerable to conflicts of interest. He must also satisfy the business aspirations of Golkar cadres, many of whom are also businessmen.
When the pair won the election two years ago, many people felt pessimistic about the staying power of their administration because both were supported only by minor parties. Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) had declared themselves as opposition parties. Kalla easily resolved the problem. Using his experience and resources as an entrepreneur he easily won the Golkar chairmanship in December 2004. Now PDI-P is alone as an opposition party.
Now Kalla has a much stronger position, because by controlling Golkar the government has become more stable. But this also means Yudhoyono must share more power with Kalla. Kalla seems happy to play a prime ministerial role, although credit will go to the President, as happened in Aceh. It was Kalla who worked hard to achieve peace there, but it was Yudhoyono who was expected to win the Nobel Peace Prize.
For the moment they are an ideal pair, but due to his own circumstances, Kalla will clearly become more demanding of the President. In the 2009 elections it is not likely that they will remain a harmonious pair. With a political machine and financial resources at hand, Kalla will have a strong chance to challenge Yudhoyono in the presidential elections, unless one or the other opts out of the race.
Kalla, however, faces our biggest enemy: nature. Born on May 15, 1942, he will be 67 years old in 2009. Voters may worry about his age and health. Born on Sept. 9, 1949, the President will be only 60 in 2009.
The Vice President may choose to become a king-maker in 2009 rather than to run in the election. But Kalla will be in a difficult position, because although he will still control Golkar, the party members are pragmatic people who are hungry for power and money. They may pressure him to run. And who knows whether voters really do care about age?
The writer can be reached at purba@thejakartapost.com
