David Gorman and Michael Vatikiotis, Sulu
There has been much trumpeting about the recent successes in tracking down and eliminating key leaders of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Southern Philippines. The killing of significant Abu Sayyaf Group members in the past two months has been hailed as evidence that the tide against dangerous terrorists is turning in this region. Less attention has been paid though to the impact of these operations on the broader context of peace-building in the troubled Southern Philippines.
Sustainable peace between Mindanao's four million Muslims, their Christian neighbors and the central government in Manila remains elusive. Like the situation in modern Somalia and Afghanistan, this part of the Southern Philippines, especially the Sulu island chain which harbors the Abu Sayyaf, is a patchwork of contending clans, insurgents and splinter groups which have been mired in conflict for decades. The so-called terror experts would have us believe that taking out a few bad guys and building new roads and schools is the path to peace and stability.
But sustainable peace will only be achieved by working hard to sustain existing peace agreements and framing new ones. The decade old peace agreement between the Moro National Liberation Movement (MNLF) has not delivered the peace many hoped. The ongoing Malaysian brokered peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has yet to be concluded.
All of this predates the war on terror and it would now be naive to assume that increasing body counts of dead terrorists indicate progress in bringing peace to Mindanao. A closer examination of events as they have unfolded since the beginning of the year portrays the kaleidoscope of conflicts that exist and the challenges of bringing peace to the region and ending the war on terror.
After several months of stepped up operations to eliminate the ASG, including operatives of the Jamaah Islamiyah (JI), the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) began to make significant progress in neutralizing their leadership. In early January, it was widely reported that seven ASG operatives were killed while leading a kidnapping expedition. Shortly, thereafter, senior ASG leaders Binang Sali, Abu Solaiman were 'neutralized' and the killing of ASG chief Khaddafy Janajalani was confirmed.
Although, the campaign has largely gone without any collateral damage to civilian or MNLF forces, on 18 January what was not widely reported is that nine people including MNLF and civilians as well as three AFP marines were killed in a in a clash near a village called Timpuuk in Sulu.
Such ""misencounters"" with MNLF forces have generated a sense of uncertainty in Sulu, and fears that the campaign against ASG could spiral into armed conflict between Government and the MNLF. The Timpuuk incident revealed the fragile state of the 1996 peace treaty and the arrangement of ""no confrontation"" between the MNLF and AFP.
Indeed, just days after the AFP claimed success over the ASG, followed by a high profile visit to Sulu by U.S. President George Bush's Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy Karen Hughes, two ranking Philippine officials, including a marine general were held captive by the MNLF for two days demanding a review of the 1996 Agreement and the release from house detention of their leader, Chairman of the MNLF, Nur Misuari.
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has promised to step up development efforts in Sulu while the AFP maintains pressure on the ASG and hopes to eliminate the Indonesian terrorists. Meanwhile violence continues to be endemic to Sulu, where personal grudges are often settled with guns, and military and guerrilla forces trade artillery and rocket fire at the slightest provocation; MNLF and AFP troops remain in a standoff, and levels of violence are expected to rise as national elections scheduled for May draw closer.
Unfortunately, the endemic violence which plagues Sulu and the need for long term solutions as opposed to quick headline grabbing fixes gets buried in the rubble. The MNLF has been around for thirty five years, the MILF and other splinter groups for thirty and the ASG for twenty. Will they be around in another ten years?
Fortunately, there are sustained efforts behind the scenes to bring closure to this long and debilitating conflict that has killed more than 150,000 since the 1960s. The Sulu Peace Working Group, supported by the Center for Humanitarian Dialog and composed of ten individuals from Sulu from all sectors of society including the police, military, judiciary, the insurgent groups, and others is one effort. Working jointly with all parties to keep a lid on the violence but also identify and facilitate longer term solutions, their efforts will not make the headline news but they will make the difference in the longer term.
David Gorman is mediation advisor and Michael Vatikiotis regional representative of the Centre for Humanitarian Dialog.
