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Asia in dire need of more money to save rice industry, security
The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Tue, 08/21/2007 7:21 AM | Opinion
Michael Richardson, Singapore
As the average annual temperature rises in many parts of the world, one of the biggest concerns is the impact on agriculture. Yet there has been relatively little research on how humanity will feed itself in a climate that is both warmer and more unpredictable.
This issue of is special concern to Asia where rice is the dominant food crop and relies heavily on fresh water, as well as fertilizer, to grow and produce high yields. Rice is grown in over 100 countries. But nearly 90 percent of the land used for rice is in Asia where eight countries -- India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, Burma and the Philippines -- account for 80 percent of the global rice area.
Since the Green Revolution began just over 40 years ago with the release of the first modern rice variety by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the Philippines, the global rice harvest has more than doubled, keeping slightly ahead of population growth and bringing market prices down by 80 percent in the last two decades so that the poor can afford it. Rice is the staple food for half the planet's population and most of its poorest people, providing about 20 percent of direct human calorie intake worldwide.
But the advances in plant breeding and farm management that sustained the Green Revolution are facing new challenges. World rice production is now expanding at less than 2 percent annually and rice-growing countries are finding it difficult to raise output much beyond this level. Global prices for rice have doubled in the past two years to reach a 10-year high. Urea fertilizer prices have tripled in the last five years. With demand increasing relative to supply, world rice reserves are at a 30-year low.
This is putting added pressure on rice-importing countries, such as Indonesia, to return to self-sufficiency. Indonesia, the world's fifth most populous nation, has been struggling for several years to lift rice production. It has to pay for increasingly expensive rice imports. Shortages could trigger price rises in Indonesia, causing social unrest and political instability.
Experts say that climate change is already affecting Asia's ability to produce rice and this could slow or even undermine efforts to reduce poverty -- one of the region's great success stories, particularly in East Asia. IRRI is the world's leading international rice research and training center.
Although based in the Philippines, it has offices in 13 other countries in Asia. Its scientists say that both higher maximum and higher minimum temperatures can decrease rice yields. They also say that the positive effects of increased amounts of carbon dioxide -- the main greenhouse gas -- do not compensate for an overall decrease in rice quality from the effects of global warming.
Meanwhile, a long-term problem of fresh water scarcity is looming against a backdrop of climate extremes and sea-level rise. Almost two-thirds of the fresh water for human use in Asia goes into rice production. Climate extremes such as more frequent or more intense flooding, droughts, cyclones and heat waves pose incalculable threats to farming.
Sea-level rise is projected to be in the range of 10 -- 85 centimeters over the next century, depending on the climate scenario used. The implications for rice production in some low-lying coastal areas of Asia are grave. Vietnam's rice industry, for example, depends heavily on farms in the Mekong and Red River deltas. Much of this land is under one metre above sea-level and much of the rest is at a height of just 1 -- 5 metres.
IRRI is already working on ways to help Asian rice farmers adapt to adverse circumstances. Earlier this year, it established a group of experts to assess the direct and indirect consequences of climate change on rice production, and find ways of overcoming or mitigating them. The initial phase of the research is focusing on how to make rice more resistant to heat stress and how to grow it using less water.
First results using new varieties grown in dry land conditions, just like other cereals such as maize or wheat, are promising. Using early-generation varieties of this ""aerobic"" rice in the Philippines and northern China, water inputs were 30 -- 50 percent less than in flooded systems, with yields that were only 20 -- 30 percent lower. The maximum yield using this technique was about 5.5 tons per hectare. New management systems are being developed by IRRI to optimize water and nutrient inputs and to ensure long-term sustainability.
But given the scale of the challenges facing Asia's rice industry -- and its future food security -- more money is needed to fund expanded research and extension work by IRRI, an autonomous, nonprofit institution dedicated to the well-being of present and future generations of rice farmers and consumers, particularly those with low-incomes.
It is one of 15 centers funded through the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), an association of public and private donor agencies. Around 1,000 modern rice varieties, or approximately half the number released in South and Southeast Asia over the last 40 years, are linked to germplasm developed by IRRI and its partners.
Yet when the need is greatest, some donors are turning away. IRRI's director general Robert Zeigler says bluntly in the latest annual report that the organization faces ""a very tough environment."" While the U.S. government decided not to reduce its support to IRRI and Britain and Germany increased funding, Japan and the Netherlands cut their aid. Meanwhile, the World Bank and the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union, are squabbling over how their funding to all CGIAR centers should be handled.
IRRI has offered to stump up US$2 million of its own research funds as part of an effort to raise between $20 -- 25 million for a five-year program to help prepare the Asian rice industry for the impact of climate change. It is now looking for new donors and innovative ways to tap into the spirit of philanthropy emerging in Asia. Maybe some of the region's tycoons will contribute. Whether they realize it or not, they have benefited hugely from the prosperity and stability underpinned by rice.
The writer, a former Asia editor of the International Herald Tribune, is a security specialist at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore.
