Urip Hudiono, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Consumer prices rose 0.8 percent on average in September, as food prices crept up on the usual increased demand during Ramadhan, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported Monday.
On a year-to-year basis, September's inflation continued the upward trend to reach a high for the year of 6.95 percent. For the nine months from January, meanwhile, the consumer price index was up by 4.41 percent.
Increases in the prices of a number of foodstuffs were the main contributors to last month's inflation, despite the government's efforts to keep supplies of such staples as rice, sugar, cooking oil and kerosene in line with the normal rise in demand during Ramadhan, which started on Sept. 13 and will end with the Idul Fitri holidays on Oct. 13.
Higher prices for fish and poultry products added 0.06 and 0.1 percent respectively to last month's inflation, BPS director Rusman Heriawan said. The price of rice, sugar and cooking oil remained stable, while that of kerosene -- shortages of which contributed to August's inflation -- began coming down.
Overall, staple food prices increased by 1.81 percent from a month ago, making up more than half of September's monthly inflation, while a 0.45 percent increase in processed food and beverage prices contributed another 0.08 percent.
The new academic year for third-level institutes also pushed up inflation, with college tuition fees increasing by 2.51 percent, adding 0.1 percent to the monthly price increases.
The 20 percent turnpike toll hike on Sept. 4 added another 0.02 percent.
Rusman said inflationary pressures could persist through the last two weeks of Ramadhan ahead of the Idul Fitri holidays.
""The time is therefore critical in terms of inflation if the government wishes to do something about, although the period after Idul Fitri is usually marked by a cooling down in prices.""
September's on-year inflation is already above the government's 6.5 percent estimate, and brushing the central bank's 5 to 7 percent upper range.
This latest rise in inflation could influence Bank Indonesia in deciding what to do with its key interest rate during its next policy meeting on Oct. 8. The BI rate was held steady at 8.25 percent last month on the rising inflationary outlook, although the central bank has now been provided with the leeway for another trim following the recent dramatic cut by the U.S. Fed in its key rate.
BI senior deputy governor Miranda S. Goeltom said inflationary pressures would likely remain high before easing back in November. A pick-up in inflation usually occurs again during the Christmas and New Year holidays.
In a separate report, the BPS also announced Indonesia's latest trade figures, which saw total exports until August reaching US$73.35 billion, an increase of 13 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, imports for January-August rose 16 percent to $46.82 billion.
