People of Myanmar face uncertainty after crackdown

The Jakarta Post ,  Jakarta   |  Wed, 10/03/2007 3:51 PM  |  Opinion

Michael Vatikiotis and Leon de Riedmatten, Singapore

Now that the military junta in Myanmar has brutally cracked down on the protesters in the streets of Yangon and Mandalay, beating up monks and hauling them off in horrific scenes that have shocked the world, the big question is what next for this country's long suffering people. Can the army, which has ruled the country for 45 years, force all this popular anger back into the bottle? What will they do this time to keep the cork in place?

The army managed to do just this in 1988 after killing at least 3,000 people. But that was then. Today might be different for several reasons.

Two common assumptions about Myanmar are slowly becoming less valid. The first is that powerful regional neighbors like India and China can be relied upon to shore up the military regime with critical political and economic support. The second is that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which Myanmar joined in 1997, will act as a secondary shield against sanction and global opprobrium.

China and India have been forced by the violent crackdown on peaceful protesters, many of them Buddhist monks, to go beyond the usual plaintive pleas for respect of stability and sovereignty. Beijing has said it ""whole-heartedly hopes Myanmar will push forward a democracy process that is appropriate for the country"". India's external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee has expressed concern and called for dialog and a ""broad-based process of national reconciliation and political reform"".

Meanwhile, ASEAN has broken a long tradition of refraining from commenting on the internal affairs of member states and expressed revulsion at the bloody military crackdown, which few diplomats believe has killed only a handful of people.

Overly cautious as these statements are, they point the way to a more proactive role by Myanmar's neighbors, small and big, that could help prevent further bloodshed. For assuming that this confrontation between unarmed populace and soldiers is irreversible, the only way to stem the senseless shedding of blood on the streets is for some kind of dialog process and compromise, with the help and encouragement of the international community.

Neighboring countries can no longer turn a blind eye to repression in Myanmar now that the UN Security Council is primed to frame further resolutions pressuring the ruling military junta. And as ASEAN prepares to frame a new charter, it looks likely that new measures will be tabled by the end of the year to sanction member states for human rights and other abuses.

In this time of time of crisis it is important to remember that serious issues need to be resolved so Myanmar can move forward. These issues include continued ethnic conflict within the country's borders, severe economic failure, and humanitarian decline. Even before the protests began a few weeks ago, sparked by a steep fuel price increase, there was unhappiness among ethnic minority groups over the new constitution framed by the military rulers. Many of the ceasefire agreements that persuaded rebel groups on the country's margins to put aside their weapons, have shown an inclination to reach for them again.

This leaves the question of how the present stand off might be defused. The effectiveness of the crackdown and images of deserted streets in the country's two main cities suggests that people power alone will not bring about political change. There has been some speculation about a split within the ranks of the military, with some junior officers reluctant to fire on unarmed civilians and monks. This has given rise to hopes of a more progressive faction of the army taking over, perhaps by way of a coup.

Should this be the case, hopefully more progressive officers will link up with Aung San Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest, in the interests of reconciliation and national unity. Certainly it would be naove to assume that the military will simply give up its grip on power without a managed, transitional phase.

The question then becomes who will manage this transition? This is uncharted territory in today's Southeast Asia. The severe problems facing the country would suggest a role for an international consortium of donors and agencies. Something, perhaps, like the Cambodian experience, which involved the United Nations in a brief but successful exercise in political transition through a supervised national election.

But intensely felt national sentiment would suggest that the Myanmar people may not be as willing as the Cambodians to tolerate such an intrusive presence on the ground. Myanmar after all was once the most advanced nation in the region. So much like the Philippines in the mid-1980s, it will be up to the people of Myanmar to design and execute their own reform program. Democracy, as examples like Iraq suggest, cannot be imposed.

Understandably, the people of Myanmar, supported by the international community would like to see a swift return to civilian rule and popular sovereignty. Few countries in the world have endured so much deprivation and debilitating isolation for so long. The trick will be how this can be managed without making it look like the army has surrendered to popular protest. Just as the military in Indonesia was gradually eased out of politics, with very few of its officers held accountable for abuses, so it can be assumed that Myanmar's generals will be looking for a soft landing.

Michael Vatikiotis and Leon de Rietmadden work for the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue in Southeast Asia.

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