Jakarta, ID
Saturday, May 26 2012, 17:13 PM

Opinion

Kim Jong-il factor

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What is the chance North and South Korea will enjoy the kind of peaceful reunification of East and West Germany in 1990? This was the implicit -- and perhaps unintentional -- message of this newspaper when it ran two interesting pictures on Wednesday that fell under the reunification theme.

The first picture appeared on the front page, showing South Korea's President Roh Moo-hyun meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang. The second picture appeared on page 12, showing Germany's Ambassador to Indonesia Baron Paul von Maltzahn hosting a reception to celebrate the 17th anniversary of the reunification of East and West Germany.

It is unclear whether the two Korean leaders intentionally decided to begin their summit on the same day Germany celebrated its Unity Day, as a sign of their strong determination to unify the two Koreas.

International news agencies reported the North Korean people chanted ""reunify the fatherland"" as the two leaders met.

The two Koreas -- which are technically still at war -- can learn from Germany's experience, although the goal of unification is still far away.

In the case of Germany it was West Germany that ""swallowed"" the East, and in the case of Korea it is very unlikely that North Korea's Kim will accept a similar scenario.

South Korea is 17 times richer than the North and Seoul continues to provide generous economic aid to the North to win hearts and minds.

Although Korean media reported that Kim Jong-il gave a friendlier reception to Roh's predecessor Kim Dae-jung when they held a summit in 2000, since then Pyongyang has moved forward in dismantling its nuclear program.

The six-party talks -- which involve the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan -- in Beijing on Sunday enjoyed quite significant progress because the reclusive North Korean leader is more open about his nuclear program.

It is clear however that Kim Jong-il will not easily give up the country's nuclear capability unless he is sure to get the maximum benefit from the concession and that it will not endanger his own existence.

Even U.S. President George W. Bush, who was once very hostile toward Pyongyang, now admits there is hope that Pyongyang will eventually agree to shut down its nuclear program in exchange for economic and diplomatic benefits.

However, going by Kim's past track record and his reputation for unpredictability, it is still too early to determine whether he is really serious about changing his nuclear policy.

Although Kim Jong-il is the most powerful man in his country, he must still take into account his generals. If the military rulers were to take exception to Kim's concessions to the West, they could move to weaken his position.

President Roh himself wants to leave behind a strong legacy, because according to the law he cannot run again in the December presidential election.

President Roh's meeting with Kim Jong-il has been criticized by South Korean hardliners who accuse the North Korean leader of wanting to blackmail Seoul with its nuclear power.

No one knows if the history of Germany's reunification can be repeated in Korea. Indonesia itself has been active in persuading Kim Jong-il to give up his nuclear program, with two Indonesian presidents, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, offering in vain to play a mediator role.

Hopefully the North Korean leader will be more consistent in shutting down his nuclear program, for the sake of millions of North Koreans living in extreme poverty.

The participants of the six-party talks also need to convince Kim Jong-il that they are also honest in their commitment.