The Jakarta Post, Bandung, Kediri, Malang
The rumbling Mount Kelud in East Java entered its third critical phase Wednesday, with earthquake activity has increased steadily in the last three days, with nearly 500 volcanic quakes recorded on a single day.
The volcano's rising activity prompted the authorities on Thursday to force the evacuation of residents living within a 10-km radius of the crater.
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro told residents to stay in shelters even though it was hard to predict just when the eruption would take place.
""We advised residents to evacuate the area,"" Purnomo said at a gathering for retiring employees at the Volcanology and Geology Disaster Mitigation Center in Bandung, West Java, on Thursday.
Center officials are only allowed to observe the volcano at distance of one kilometer.
The center's head, Surono, said the volcano was entering its third critical phase. The first and second phases took place on Oct. 16 and Oct. 19.
He posited the volcano had not yet erupted due to both cooled magma from the 1990 eruption blocking the way, and a magma volume still too small to trigger an eruption.
The center added six more observers to the 16 others already on site.
""Unlike other volcanoes like Mount Anak Krakatau and Mount Soputan, which spew smaller then bigger eruptions, it's hard to see visual signs of Kelud's eruption. We can only be patient since we have to adjust to nature, not the other way around,"" Surono said.
Mount Anak Krakatau in the Sunda Strait and Mount Soputan in North Sulawesi have been placed on second highest alert status after spewing sand and gas.
In the past two days weather around Mount Kelud has worsened, with the thick clouds and heavy rain reminding many Sugihwaras villagers in Blitar regency of conditions when the volcano last erupted.
""We have started feeling a strange atmosphere at Kelud and this might be a sign that Kelud will erupt soon,"" said Sutardjo, a villager, before evacuating his home with his wife and two sons.
""We are busy counting the number of quakes at the volcano. Let's see if these quakes are strong enough to shatter the magma blocking the eruption path,"" said the head of Kelud's observation team, Umar Rosadi.
On Wednesday, 322 shallow volcanic quakes were recorded at the volcano, while for the first 12 hours on Thursday, 427 quakes struck. When the volcano last erupted in 1990, some 320 quakes were recorded.
""It means magma is working hard to break through the blockage,"" Umar said.
""If Kelud still does not erupt, it might need a fourth critical phase, with stronger quake intensity and frequency to allow magma to come to the surface.""
The volcano's rising activity has forced the police and local officials to go from house to house evacuating residents.
In Malang regency, authorities have prepared dozens of shelters to house evacuated residents in the event of an eruption.
Head of South Malang rescue unit, Bambang Siswanto, said houses were being prepared in each of eight villages in Ngantang and Kasembon districts.
""We have selected some 10 well-built houses in each village where residents can shelter,"" he said.
