Airline traffic and global warming

Michael Richardson , Singapore | Thu, 02/21/2008 12:08 PM | Opinion

As competition among airlines in Asia and other parts of the world intensifies, an ever-growing mass of people finds it convenient to travel by air for business and leisure. But the rapid growth of commercial aviation is having a significant impact on global warming -- and Asia, the world's fastest expanding market for air travel, is starting to feel the heat.

In its latest forecast of aviation growth, European aircraft maker Airbus said earlier this month that world's fleet of large passenger jets (more than 100 seats) would double in the next 20 years to nearly 33,000 aircraft. It predicted that passenger traffic would rise by 4.9 percent per year between 2007 and 2026, almost trebling in two decades as jet planes got bigger and more people flew on them. Meanwhile air-freight will rise by 5.8 percent annually in the same period.

The greatest demand will come from the Asia-Pacific region, where airlines will take delivery of 31 percent of new planes in the next 20 years, compared with 24 percent for Europe and 27 percent for North America.

According to Airbus, the air transport industry contributes just 2 percent of global man-made emissions of carbon dioxide, the main gas blamed for global warming. But it acknowledged that a big rise in the number of planes would mean more greenhouse gas emissions and therefore increased pressure on makers of aircraft and their engines to cut pollution.

Critics assert that the airline industry is underestimating its contribution to global warming. They also say that while advances in engine design and other improved technology will continue to reduce airline pollution, these gains will be offset by the sheer growth of aviation, particularly in Asia, Europe and the U.S.

Reacting to concerns about climate change, Europe has drafted controversial plans to make all airlines flying into an out of the bloc buy pollution permits. The European Commission, executive arm of the European Union, proposed last month that airlines using EU airports would be included in the bloc's emissions trading scheme from 2012, with a cap on their greenhouse emissions like CO2, nitrogen oxides and water vapor.

Under the scheme, which has yet to be approved by the European Parliament and the 27 member-states of the EU, airlines would gradually have to buy emissions certificates at auction, starting with 20 percent of permits in 2013 and rising to 100 percent in 2020.

EU environmental officials have promoted the airline bill as a centerpiece of Europe's campaign to lead the world in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the U.S. government and many airlines insist there should be an international agreement first. They warn with without it, European airlines risk retaliation as third countries deny them access or impose punitive taxes while non-European airlines shun Europe as a hub for long-haul flights. Airlines also say that the EU action could cost billions of euros and drive up ticket prices.

But the pressure outside Asia for tighter curbs on global warming emissions from passenger and freight aircraft is growing. In December in the U.S., a coalition of state governments, cities and environmental groups filed petitions with the Environmental Protection Agency urging it to address the effects of vast amounts of global warming pollution from the world's aircraft fleet. The petitions are the first step in a process that requires the EPA to evaluate the current impacts of aircraft emissions, seek public comment and develop rules to reduce aircraft pollution or explain why it will not act.

The coalition says that aircraft currently account for 12 percent of CO2 emissions from U.S. transportation sources and three percent of the total CO2 emissions from the United States. The U.S. is responsible for nearly half of worldwide CO2 emissions from planes.

However, a recent report by Britain's Royal Commission on Environmental Protection found that the net effects of ozone, aircraft condensation trails and aviation-induced cloud cover is likely to triple the warming effect of CO2 emitted by aircraft. The report concluded that if these estimates are correct and the anticipated growth in aviation occurs, aviation may be responsible for between six and ten percent of the human impact on climate by the year 2050.

The Asian aviation industry needs to take note of these trends and developments and move from reactive to proactive mode. Staying silent and adding nothing to the growing debate over aircraft pollution and climate change will simply mean that other players act to set the rules governing future air travel.

The writer, a former Asia editor of the International Herald Tribune, works on energy and climate change issues at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore.

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