Kevin Rudd's China diplomacy in turbulance

S.P. Seth ,  Sydney   |  Fri, 04/18/2008 10:04 AM  |  Opinion

Despite the hype in the Australian media about the celebrity status of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on the world stage during his recent official tour taking him to the United States, Europe and China, his 4 days in China were, nevertheless, important.

Ever since he became Prime Minister some months ago, much has been made of his fluency in Mandarin, and his short stint in Beijing as a junior Australian diplomat. Which led to the widespread belief that he was biased in favor of China.

And this seemed to find confirmation in his travel itinerary that didn't include Japan. Which, not unnaturally, led to criticism within Australia and in Japan that by including China, and excluding Japan, Kevin Rudd was somehow snubbing Tokyo.

Whether or not it was deliberate or coincidental, it looked like that Japan's exclusion was meant to signal Beijing that Canberra was distancing itself from U.S.-Japan-Australia tripartite strategic architecture that had the appearance of containing China.

And by refusing to supply uranium to India (as agreed by his predecessor) as part of the newly emerging Washington-New Delhi strategic nexus, and ignoring India altogether in his foreign policy formulations, Rudd appeared to be reinforcing the appearance of his China bias.

In all this, the centrality of Canberra's U.S.-connection has never been in doubt, and was re-emphasized by Kevin Rudd during the U.S. leg of his tour.

Rudd believes that "the United States alliance is overwhelmingly in Australia's strategic interests." But he doesn't want Australia to be seen as a camp follower.

According to Rudd, "Labor (now the ruling party) does not believe in an alliance which mandates automatic compliance with every aspect of US foreign policy."

Even though he was referring to the U.S.'s "deeply flawed policy on Iraq" when he wrote this in an Australian foreign policy journal, it must have been well received in Beijing at the time, as Rudd looked like riding an upward electoral curve to become Australia's new prime minister, which he did.

With all these hopeful signs for China, Rudd doesn't look like living up to their expectations. And he made this known when, during the U.S. leg of his tour and in the midst of Tibet riots, he said publicly that China has a significant human rights problem in Tibet.

And that they need to address it through a peaceful dialogue with the Dalai Lama and his representatives.

He went on to repeat these concerns when he was in China. He said "we believe it is necessary to recognize there are significant human rights problems in Tibet." But he reiterated that Canberra accepted China's sovereignty in Tibet.

Beijing didn't like it. But, as Rudd pointed out, "The best way to prosecute our relationship with China is to be broad-based about it and not to pretend problems do not exist when they do."

Rudd also said that that China's security personnel (in blue track suits surrounding the Olympic flame) would not be allowed to accompany the flame during its Canberra leg.

In other words, Australia will provide the necessary security.

Australia and China have a burgeoning economic relationship. With the rise in global commodity prices due to rising global demand, much of it fueled by China's voracious consumption of these materials, Beijing is becoming edgy over having to pay more for exports, like iron ore, from Australia.

Beijing seeks to control the market price by investment in strategic mining sectors in Australia, and by excluding Australian companies from spot market sales, where prices are higher.

Not surprisingly, this is becoming an issue between the two countries. But with Australia having the goods, and China needing them to fuel its economy, Canberra is playing it cool.

At the same time, Beijing apparently realizes that Australia is a secure and stable supplier of these goods, and will not like to overplay its hand.

Kevin Rudd is also pushing technological cooperation in the area of clean coal technology. And has sought to reopen free trade talks with China.

Rudd is an advocate of engaging China regionally and globally. And to this end, he favors extending the six-party forum on North Korea into a NATO-style Asian security structure.

But, so far, even the North Korean proliferation issue is stalled, and any movement in this direction is unlikely to make much headway any time soon.

While Rudd favors "a policy of comprehensive engagement with the Asia-Pacific region", his 17 days of foreign safari seemed to ignore Asia, apart from China. It sought to engage mostly with the United Sates and Europe.

Particularly glaring has been the omission of Indonesia (apart from the Bali conference), its important neighbor. Canberra prides itself on being Asia-literate but one cannot help feeling that often rhetoric tends to become a substitute for policy.

The writer is a freelance writer based in Sydney and can be reached at SushilPSeth@aol.com

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