Letter: Threat of a future influenza pandemic

Wed, 04/23/2008 10:36 AM | Reader's Forum

Health officials, scientists and people everywhere should be heartened by the efforts of Indonesian health officials to respond to the threat of a future influenza pandemic.

However, an estimate of the number of Indonesians who might die in a pandemic should be based not on the mortality experience of 1968 but on what might be expected if the current H5N1 virus develops pandemic capabilities.

The mortality rate from H5N1 infection in Indonesia has been approximately 80 percent, and it has been 100 percent in those who have not received antiviral treatment. In the event of an H5N1 pandemic, adequate supplies of antiviral agents will not be available, with predictable consequences.

Likewise, specific vaccines will be in very short supply and will probably arrive late, if at all. However, there is reason for hope.

Several investigators have shown that widely available and inexpensive generic medications that modify the host response in patients with pneumonia and seasonal influenza might reduce pandemic mortality.

Unfortunately, influenza scientists have not paid much attention to this work. For this reason, Indonesians could help themselves and people throughout the world if they would urge scientists and health officials to focus their attention on the possibility of using one or more of these generic agents to manage what otherwise might be an unimaginable global health crisis.

DAVID S. FEDSON
Sergy Haut, France

Comments (0) | Post comment

A | A | A |