Managing expectations amid Obamamania

Sam Polk , Jakarta | Sat, 04/26/2008 12:02 PM | Opinion

Excitement about the U.S. presidential election is palpable here in Jakarta.

I almost had to pinch myself the other night while riding in a Jakarta taxi as I attempted to explain not only the confusing system of electors that the United States uses to pick its president, but also the process through which political parties select their presidential nominees, stretching my Bahasa Indonesia to its limit in the process.

Of course, the main reason for the interest is Barack Obama. As a viable, mainstream candidate of color, he represents a new face of American politics in a very real sense. Moreover, the often-reported fact that he lived for four years in Indonesia has clearly given many people here a sense of personal connection to him and his candidacy, as suggested by my taxi driver's enthusiasm about the possibility of "the first Indonesian president of America."

(Obama's father was from Kenya, and his mother from Kansas, USA, but the oversight can be forgiven).

Beyond the emotional attachment of the city's cab drivers to Obama, however, there is also a belief here that his success thus far represents that America is in the midst of a course correction and a departure from the policies and bellicose rhetoric of George W. Bush that have been so unpopular here.

Following from this, there is also a hope that with Bush's passing from the U.S. political scene will come a wholesale reappraisal of U.S. foreign policy - particularly with regard to Iraq and the so-called War on Terror - resulting in greater U.S. engagement with Indonesia and Southeast Asia in an active effort to build a peaceful and prosperous Asia Pacific region with the ASEAN states as its core.

The hope and capacity for regeneration in America that Obama and the upcoming election represent is real.

Nevertheless, there is good reason to believe that some of the U.S. policies most unpopular here are unlikely to change much, and that the new president's primary focus will remain on areas outside of Southeast Asia.

Take Iraq. It is no secret that U.S. actions there have been wildly unpopular among Indonesians and that the war has kept Bush and his top advisors from paying more attention to this region.

But even as Obama and Hillary Clinton denounce the Bush administration's conduct in Iraq and argue over who can get American troops out of Iraq fastest, there is a growing realization that a precipitous U.S. withdrawal could be disastrous. In spite of what they say on the campaign trail, it is likely that under either Obama or Clinton a large U.S. troop presence will remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future in order to prevent a return to the levels of violence present there before the so-called "surge" of additional U.S. troops into the country, when the prospect of a genocidal civil war or a regional war involving Iran and Iraq's Arab neighbors seemed an imminent possibility.

A reality check may also be in order with regard to expectations about the next president's approach to terrorism.

A new U.S. president may speak about the issue with greater nuance and measure than Bush does, but the U.S. will remain heavily engaged in Afghanistan, where it and its NATO allies face a booming drug trade and a resurgent Taliban and al-Qaeda. Moreover, all of the candidates have reserved the right to take whatever measures they deem necessary to prevent another attack on the U.S. Even Obama himself has voiced his support for unilateral U.S. strikes against al-Qaeda targets on Pakistani soil if Pakistani authorities fail to take action themselves.

U.S. military engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan will not be the only issues crowding onto the new president's foreign policy agenda, though. Crises from Darfur through the Middle East, Iran, and Pakistan, and on to North Korea will demand the lion's share of a future U.S. president's time and energy and prevent Southeast Asia from getting the consistent, high-level U.S. attention for which some in the region have hoped.

In addition to these constraints on a new administration's ability to meet the high hopes of many in this region, economic tensions may also complicate trade relations with countries here.

The current housing crisis and economic slowdown in the U.S. have further squeezed America's already beleaguered middle-class, fueling protectionist and anti-trade sentiment in the process. For evidence of the political ramifications of this, one need only take a listen to the Democratic candidates compete to see who can criticize existing free trade deals the loudest as they campaign for the support of working-class Pennsylvania voters.

It is tempting to dismiss this as pre-election posturing to appease the organized labor groups that make up one of the Democratic Party's traditional power bases, or to think that outspoken free trader and Republican Party presidential nominee John McCain would somehow be immune to these pressures.

But if the recent impasses over relatively minor free trade deals with South Korea and Colombia are any indication, the next U.S. administration will have to contend with growing demands for greater protectionism and with a U.S. Congress deeply hostile to free trade. This does not auger well for the passage of a U.S.-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement - let alone for the U.S. to make the concessions that Indonesia and other developing countries want for the successful conclusion of the Doha Round of World Trade Organization talks.

Amid this constellation of pressures and constraints, Bush's departure - and potentially an Obama victory - will most surely not result in an expeditious end to the Iraq War and to America's preoccupation with terrorism. Nor will it immediately beget a U.S. more thoroughly engaged with the Southeast Asia's development, replete with new high-level initiatives on economic cooperation and dutiful attendance at ASEAN events.

Change may indeed be afoot on the other side of the Pacific. But rather than pining for an America that for the moment cannot be, a wiser strategy for Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries would be to prepare for dealing with an America unsure of itself at home, and still very much focused elsewhere in the world.

The writer is a Henry Luce Scholar at the Centre for Strategic and international Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta.

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