Where military coups are nothing unusual, never say never

Thu, 06/12/2008 10:18 AM  |  Headlines

"Not for now," the Thai military leaders said last week when asked whether there would be a military coup, as the street protests, led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), rumbled on.

Although the military has shown apparent support for the anti-government protesters by opposing Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's attempt to crack down on the PAD rally, Thai army commander Gen. Anupong Paojinda insisted the military had no immediate intention to stage a coup.

The supreme commander of the Thai armed forces, General Boonsrang Niumpradit, confirmed Anupong's statement. Both men played an instrumental role in the September 2006 coup that unseated then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

But Anupong was quick to add that "the military will only listen to the majority of the people".

It remains unclear if his statement implies the military is merely waiting for the right moment to launch another coup, given military leaders unanimously denied any plans for a coup before ousting Thaksin -- only to change their tune a few days later as protests swelled.

No one in Thailand can guarantee the military will not be tempted to remove the Samak government through a coup, although analysts have noted that without support from the Bangkok middle class, the demonstrations will not evolve into full-scale riots and provide the military with a pretext to step in.

A military coup remains a possibility because of the unresolved issues from the 2006 coup, in which the military failed to cleanse the country of Thaksin's influence. Many claim Thaksin wants to have a say in determining the heir to King Bhumipol Adulyadej, who is 80 and in poor health, by handpicking his own supporters to lead the military establishment.

Theoretically, the king should be succeeded by Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn. But in reality, the succession will be decided by the royal Privy Council and senior military officers. The parliament will only be called in later to approve what has already been arranged.

The military had to honor the 2006 election results and handed over power to Thaksin's allies, the People's Power Party (PPP), when the party won the election. But the impatience of the Samak government in seeking amendments to articles of the Constitution that could free Thaksin from all graft charges has revived the military's awareness that they have unfinished business.

Thai history tells us a military coup here is nothing extraordinary. The military has often stepped in to restore stability when military leaders and the monarchy believe the civilian government is failing to function.

In the case of the current political crisis, there are several factors affecting whether a coup might take place.

First, it depends on the endurance of the PAD supporters in their protest movement and on their ability to attract more people to join them; it also depends on how much patience Samak has.

If the PAD can convince more people to take to the streets as they did in the 2006 protests against Thaksin (at the height of the protests, around 100,000 people packed the roads), the anti-government group will need only a clash between the police and the protesters -- the trigger for the coup in 2006.

Such a clash will only occur, however, if the outspoken Samak (and the police force) is provoked by the protesters into losing his temper.

Second, it also depends on the success of Samak's initiatives in dampening the impacts of skyrocketing oil prices on businesses and workers as well as managing the price of paddy, a key product of rural workers -- that vast segment of the Thai population that supports Thaksin and Samak.

In the absence of commerce minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan last week, the Samak government quickly approved a rice mortgage scheme designed to shore up the falling paddy price, which has fueled peasant protests in many provinces.

Under the scheme, the government will buy paddy from farmers at a higher price. Some experts, however, have expressed doubt the scheme will work.

The government also launched a package to help distressed private bus operators a day after they halted their services last week, wreaking chaos throughout Bangkok.

Lorry operators also will get assistance under a government plan. The operators have asked for cheaper diesel, threatening otherwise to block traffic in and out of the capital with lines of lorries along the highways.

The Samak administration is also expected to come up with an assistance scheme for contractors, who have been complaining about steep rises in the prices of steel and other construction materials.

If all these packages fail, the government will face a combination of business strikes and widespread demonstrations by farmers and workers, on top of the persistent protests by the PAD.

By then it could be that it will take a military coup to calm the crisis.

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