Commentary: The curse of steadily skyrocketing global oil prices

Kornelius Purba ,  The Jakarta Post ,  Doha   |  Fri, 06/13/2008 10:03 AM  |  Headlines

Drastically higher global oil prices could endanger not only the position of leaders of oil importing countries, like Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, but, to a certain extent, could also erode the power of rulers of oil exporting countries in the Middle East.

While President Yudhoyono may see his reelection bid next year derailed because of the oil curse, leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and other oil rich countries in this region have to accommodate growing public demand for a fairer distribution of wealth and also for greater political participation.

Failure to respond to these public demands perhaps will not cost them in the short term, because they can continue to buy off the population as oil prices boom. But how long can this recipe last?

People in net oil importing countries are frustrated with what they perceive as the inability of their leaders to minimize the severe economic impacts of rising oil prices.

In oil exporting countries, people are frustrated because although their countries are enjoying major windfall profits from oil, the rulers have the final say on the distribution of wealth from the oil.

Many people in these countries believe everyone will be much more prosperous when all citizens have equal rights and access to oil profits. Of course, the rulers will defend the current political system as the best option for their countries.

Qatar Tribune newspaper on Monday ran the headline "Working no longer to save but to survive", because the prices of essential foods have risen by 50 to 100 percent over the last several weeks in Doha. This might be some "consolation" for Indonesians who are suffering from the rising prices of oil and foodstuffs.

Those were my conclusions -- perhaps somewhat naively because I am here only for a very brief visit -- after attending a conference in Qatar. During the three-day Asia Anti-Corruption Conference that ended Wednesday, many Arab participants from oil rich countries like Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait enthusiastically raised concerns over political and economic transparency in their countries.

Some of them were upset when a speaker from oil giant Shell, which has major business interests in the region, preached about good governance and accountability.

"We never made any political payments nor political donations," said Shell's Richard Wiseman proudly.

For an Indonesian journalist who was invited by the Qatar government to attend the conference and knew very little about the region, the question-and-answer sessions were exciting. It was tempting to guess why the people were so brave about talking openly at such an international conference. Was it just a ploy to convince international guests that freedom of expression really exists in Qatar, as the leaders often claim? Were they naturally sincere and not afraid of being prosecuted for their outspokenness?

"Our countries get not just billions but trillions of dollars from oil exports, but only a dozen leaders control the money," said a Qatari participant who identified himself as a writer and a human rights activist.

A Kuwaiti participant teased a Saudi Arabian economist who talked about the increasing role of accounting and auditing in fighting corruption in his country.

"Is it a reality in your country or not?" an Arab who was seated next to me quoted the Kuwaiti man as asking.

The speech of Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabor al Thani at least gave a clue that Qatar's rulers understand the people's growing political awareness.

"The exercise of democracy should achieve the principles of transparency, supervision and inquiry, so that democracy can be a referential frame for good governance, and mass and societal guarantees will thus be the means of supervision and inquiry," the prime minister, who is also foreign minister, said as he opened the conference.

In the 10 years since former president Soeharto was forced to resign in 1998, Indonesia has transformed itself into the world's third largest democracy, after India and the United States. It is also the world's most populous nation. But at the same time, Indonesia is one of the world's most corrupt countries.

To be honest, the Middle East is a very complicated region. But the remarks of the Arab participants at the conference were really impressive. They are prosperous and the state spoils them with oil profits, but they want more democracy. Indonesians already have democracy, but how about their stomachs?

A Kuwaiti participant said in a private conversation, "We say George Bush is a devil. But he did everything for his country, and for his own people. But how about our leaders?"

I am sure that President Yudhoyono has tried to make things better for his country. But many Indonesians ask, "How about the results?"

The Arabs taught me a lesson that "bread alone is not enough". The writer can be reached at purba@thejakartapost.com

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