Fuel price hikes dent Indonesian president's re-election hopes, say opinion polls

The Associated Press ,  Jakarta   |  Tue, 07/15/2008 4:48 PM  |  National

Fuel price rises have further hit the popularity of Indonesia's president, with a new opinion poll
Tuesday showing him struggling to win re-election next year.

Until this year, former military general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was seen by most political analysts as likely to win a second term at the head of the world's most populous Muslim nation.

But several recent surveys - the latest released Tuesday by respected Jakarta-based think tank CSIS - show him falling behind his closet rival, former president and current opposition leader
Megawati Sukarnoputri.

The CSIS poll showed 23 percent of voters would choose Megawati if an election were held now, 8 percent more than Yudhoyono. Regional governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono came third with 9 percent. Several other potential candidates got less support while 24 percent were undecided.

"This is a very significant dip in SBY's popularity," said CSIS pollster Nico Harjanto, referring to Yudhoyono by his initials as is commonly done. "Turning it around will be difficult."

Indonesia is a secular democracy that emerged from 32 years of dictatorship in 1998.

Western nations have spent millions of dollars supporting Indonesia's transition to democracy and its fight against Islamic militants blamed for a series of bombings, including the 2002 Bali attacks that killed 202 people.

Yudhoyono beat Megawati with 60 percent of the vote in Indonesia's firs direct elections for head of state in 2004. He campaigned on a platform of fighting corruption, beating terrorism and increasing living standards in the country of 220 million people, most of them desperately poor.

The 59-year-old has been praised for leading a successful anti-terror campaign and there has not been a major attack in three years, but graft remains endemic despite several high-profile prosecutions.

Economic growth is about 6 percent, not enough to cut unemployment rates that hover around 50 percent. With little progress being made in attracting investors and an uncertain global economic outlook, few expect improvement over the next year.

In May, the government raised long subsidized fuel prices by 30 percent to lessen the affect of soaring global oil costs on its budget, leading to spikes in the cost of food, electricity and transportation.

"The response from the ordinary person to the hikes has been overwhelmingly negative," said Mohammed Qodari, the head of private pollster Indobarometer, which last week also released a
poll showing Yudhoyono trailing Megawati.

CSIS surveyed 3,000 people across Indonesia in face-to-face interviews in May, after the government announced its intention to raise fuel prices. The margin of error was 1.79 percent.

Megawati, the daughter of Indonesia's founding father Sukarno, was voted out in 2004 after what independent analysts said was a lackluster term in office. Her party has functioned as the
opposition since then.

Indonesia goes to the polls in April to elect a parliament. Parties who get more than 20 percent or 25 percent of the vote (the exact threshold has yet to be decided) then get to nominate a candidate in presidential elections in July.

Yudhoyono has not officially said he will run again, but he is widely expected to do so.

Political experts at Monday's poll launch cautioned that the political landscape could change dramatically before both polls, including the possibility that an additional presidential candidate could emerge.

To win the presidential election outright, a candidate must get more than 50 percent of the votes. If that does not happen - as is considered likely - a run-off vote between the two top
vote-getters will take place, radically changing the dynamics of the contest.(**)

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