Opinion polls name likely victors before election day

Khairul Saleh , The Jakarta Post , Palembang | Thu, 09/04/2008 10:19 AM | The Archipelago

A day ahead of the South Sumatra gubernatorial election, survey bodies were still thronging the airwaves, promising victories for their respective candidates.

The Indonesian Strategic Survey Institute (LSSI) on Wednesday exposed its survey results, anticipating a victory for Alex Noerdin and Eddy Yusuf (ALDY) over their rivals Syahrial Oesman and Helmi Yahya (SOHE).

The survey, conducted across the province's 15 regencies and municipalities, involving 1,650 respondents, indicates ALDY will win 46 percent of the respondents' votes, while SOHE will win only 33 percent. The remanding 21 percent of constituents will not vote, according to LSSI.

"ALDY tops the survey following an alleged corruption case involving a governor hopeful," LSSI director Ismail Taufik said.

Free education and health service programs promised by ALDY will attract residents to vote for the pair, Ismail said.

"These programs are not just promises. They have already been realized in Musi Banyuasin regency, where Alex Noerdin was the regent," he said.

Meanwhile, the Center for Strategic Development and Policy Studies (Puskaptis) announced its survey results, confirming SOHE's popularity with 49.8 percent of 1,500 respondents saying they would vote for the pair.

SOHE was nominated by a coalition of political parties including the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the United Development Party (PPP).

ALDY, which was nominated by another coalition including the Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Democratic Party (PD), won only 42.6 percent, Puskaptis said.

The remaining 7.6 percent of respondents said they had not decided which pair to vote for yet.

Speaking to The Jakarta Post, political observer Soleh Idrus from Palembang Muhammadiyah University said every institution was free to conduct a survey of its own.

What people need to know is the method and counting system used to see whether the survey is scientifically conducted or just based on visual observations, he said.

"It's also worth noting that we cannot trust the results of a survey as being 100 percent true," he said.

To a certain degree, according to Soleh, a survey has no impact. However, in less-educated communities, surveys can often impact people's preference. Politically motivated surveys capitalize on this.

Soleh, however, said he was confident that South Sumatra voters were smart enough to see whether a survey was objective and unbiased.

Over five million people are expected to cast their votes for the two candidate pairs on Thursday through some 14,500 polling stations (TPS) across the province's nearly 3,000 subdistricts.

Governor hopeful Alex Noerdin is scheduled to vote at TPS 03 in Talang Semut subdistrict, Bukit Kecil, while Syahrial Oesman at TPS 18 in 18 Ilir subdistrict, Ilir Timur II, Palembang.

Alex's running mate Eddy Yusuf will cast his vote in his hometown of Baturaja, Ogan Komering Ulu regency, while Syahrial's running mate Helmi, a noted celebrity, will not vote because he is not a registered voter.

To make sure the election runs smoothly, South Sumatra Police will deploy over 50,000 security officers, comprising of about 11,500 policemen, 1,000 soldiers and over 38,000 People's Protection members.

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