Roy Morgan Update: Is marketing a brand to consumers any different to politics?

Debnath Guharoy ,  Consultant   |  Sat, 09/13/2008 9:57 AM  |  Business

The April-June quarter saw the lowest point this government has ever hit in the public opinion poles since it came to power more than three years ago.

The result comes as no surprise, as the impact of the fuel price hikes in May bit into an electorate already reeling from the spiraling cost of food. The Good Governance Monitor reflected these sentiments, across each of the four components of the report card.

"I don't trust the current government" was at its highest, with 41 percent of the population echoing this view. This situation mirrors the October-December quarter of 2005 in the aftermath of the second fuel price hike that year.

The connection between the cost of fuels and public sentiment remains inextricably linked, more directly than any other single factor affecting domestic politics.

It impacts the view that "the government is doing a good job managing this country", with only 49 percent agreeing with that statement.

This is lower than ever -- well below the 69 per cent reached in the July-September quarter of 2005. Soon after, it took a beating with the second rise in fuel prices that year -- a blow the government could afford to take early in its term.

Reassuringly, the current misfortunes of the government have had little impact on the people's faith in democracy.

The overwhelming majority, 70 percent, continue to believe that "democracy is working in Indonesia". But at a time when the wounds are raw, questionable actions favoring ministers and bureaucrats under investigation have once again affected public perceptions of corruption.

Climbing two points from the previous quarter, 85 percent now agree that corruption "is a major problem affecting this country". Wavering in the mid-80s for six consecutive quarters, the battle to win this major election promise in the eyes of the community is stagnating at best.

These conclusions are based on findings from Roy Morgan Single Source, the country's largest syndicated survey with more than 27,000 Indonesian respondents annually, projected to reflect almost 90 percent of the population over the age of 14.

With all insights linked to a multitude of data from big cities, small towns and villages across the archipelago, gathering this data, analyzing and reporting it with confidence is a time-consuming effort every 90 days.

Now, with barely six months to go before the April 2009 elections, repairing the damage done to its image will be a considerable challenge for the coalition currently in power.

The circumstances are considerably different from the last elections with global factors impacting the price of everyday essentials on the local market.

What most Indonesians are unaware of, and would chose to ignore if they did know, is that the price of a liter of fuel is still considerably lower here than it is in most other developing economies.

That dark cloud isn't about to go away anytime soon, compounding the cost of raw materials, fertilizers and eventually food, on both global and local markets.

Without any relief from these fundamental pressures faced by the dominant majority of the electorate, the bearers of bad tidings will find it difficult to win hearts and minds, and more so their all-important vote.

Like every other business, politics too is largely influenced by telling people what they want to hear, giving them what they want to buy -- without worrying too much about the details.

Like their sisters across Asia, Indonesian women shy away from the sun, keen to keep their complexions "fair". The plethora of skin-whitening creams on shop shelves offer hope, with little concern about how they work or what side effects they have, if any.

Perhaps more relevant is the political drama now being played out in the United States. The Republican core want to hear that the surge of troops in Iraq has worked, as their aspiring leader John McCain promises. Terror is down, it doesn't matter how or why.

Add to that mix a female running mate who is a pro-gun, anti-abortion, pro-drilling, anti-lobbyist governor, and suddenly the Obama camp have a major threat to what seemed a cruise to victory after eight disastrous years of George Bush.

Cynical as it may sound, the introduction of a younger woman with conservative small-town values is just what the Republicans needed. A calculated risk has paid off, rejuvenating a tired campaign.

That choice wasn't just the work of the self-styled maverick -- it was a selection based entirely on plugging all the loopholes. Good, robust information lay at the core of the selection, responding to the concerns of an electorate made complex by issues of gender, religion, ethnicity and values, not just socio-economic strata or demographics.

In Indonesia, the pundits will tell you that pleasing the electorate prior to an election is much less of a challenge. A new democracy weaning itself from authoritarian rule is still impressed with strong men, willing to obey symbols of authority (witness the growing number of ex-generals and wealthy businessmen in politics).

The religious parties get no traction, an ingredient the major parties have avoided using, with great maturity. But to ignore the worries of the consumer, the concerns of the voter, to be over-confident and take them all for granted, is fertile ground for a new brand -- even one willing to work with an old party.

The writer can be contacted at Debnath.Guharoy@roymorgan.com

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