Leaders wary of hurdles to climate treaty in 2009

The Associated Press , United Nations | Fri, 09/26/2008 7:51 AM | Environment

Leaders from Poland, Norway, Denmark and Indonesia described the prospects Wednesday of reaching a global climate treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol next year as extremely unfavorable.

Some said replacing the 1997 global warming accord depends largely on the United States dropping its opposition to participating, and whether wealthy and poorer nations can bridge their differences over technology-sharing and cutting emissions.

The U.N. is campaigning to replace the accord, which regulates the emissions of 37 industrial countries, with another accord at a meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009.

If approved, it would take effect in 2012, when Kyoto expires, and is expected to aim for global cuts of 50 percent by 2050, below the 1990 levels of carbon emissions.

"There is very little progress and there is reason to be concerned about the progress of the negotiations aiming at reaching an agreement in 2009," Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg said at one of several climate-related gatherings Wednesday held on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly's annual ministerial session.

"The main reason why there is too little progress is distrust, is the lack of confidence between the rich world and the developing world," he said. "And that's because the rich world promised in Kyoto, in 1997, to transfer knowledge, capital to assist the developing world with creating sustainable development. That hasn't happened - at least to a very limited amount or scale."

That's also why, he said, Norway agreed to donate $35 million in startup money for a new U.N. program announced Wednesdayaimed at curbing deforestation. The program will pay for more monitoring and verification of tropical rainforests, as part of an effort to persuade rich nations to reward developing countries for conserving and expanding their remaining forest cover.

Chopping down trees contributes to climate warming by elminating plant material that absorbs carbon dioxide, and by releasing the dead wood into the atmosphere as more carbon.

By helping reverse the rapid pace of deforestation in the tropics, proponents envision the possibility of cutting greenhouse gas emission globally by up to 20 percent.

"It has the tential to make substantial and immediate contributions," said Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

The program will begin on a pilot basis in nine countries: Bolivia, Congo, Indonesia, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Tanzania, Vietnam and Zambia.

Some nations, such as Indonesia, which has abundant tropical forest cover, could receive as much as $1 billion a year by making steep cuts in its deforestation rate, according to some U.N. estimates.

Last year, a U.N.panel of scientists said climate change is happening, and the earth's temperature would continue rising even if emissions of carbon dioxide and other warming gases were cut to zero today because of their accumulation in the atmosphere.

The U.S. rejected the Kyoto accord, arguing it would harm American busiess and didn't require similar cuts by China, India and other emerging economies. But those developing countries have refused to accept a binding arrangement that would limit their development.

"Without the United States, we can never succeed," said Norwegian Environment Minister Erik Solheim. "If the Americans are not moving, anyone else who does not want to move will hide behind the Americans."

But the road to Copenhagen next year leads through Poznan, Poland, where an earlier round of negotiations toward a new global climate treaty is scheduled to take place in December.

"We must shift to high gear," said Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda.

Along with Indonesia, Polish President Lech Kaczynski and Denmark Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Wednesday they had agreed to help Ban rally efforts over the next 15 months to reach a new agreement in Copenhagen, by moving the agenda from the abstract to the concrete and raising the sense of urgency.

"We cannot leave all the decisions to the very last minute in Copenhagen," said Denmark Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

In Poznan, he said, nations must decide on their long-term goals, key elements of a new treaty and a "firm" 2009 work agenda. "Poznan should send the political signal on the need to reduce emissions by 50 percent by 2050, compared to a 1990 level."

Ban said a new climate treaty can be reached "if we rise to the challenge of our time, act in good faith and responsibly, and if national leaders are able to rise above their immediate national concerns and look after the global good."

But it would be too risky, Stoltenberg said, if the U.N. were to postpone the December 2009 target date for agreeing on a new treaty.

"It's very dangerous now to postpone the date," he said. "Because then I believe that the whole pressure, the whole momentum, will disappear and it can take years before we're able to reach a new agreement."

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