The fact that no single political party can rely on its own power to win the 2009 presidential election means that all Indonesian political parties are busy, trying to create the most politically feasible coalition in order to secure victory in the election.
After a long process of negotiations and lobbying, eventually the House of Representatives (DPR) last month managed to set a threshold of 20 percent of House seats or 25 percent of the popular vote as the minimum a party or a coalition of parties must win to be able to nominate its own presidential candidate.
There has been a hot debate as to whether or not Golkar Party -- as the biggest political party -- will maintain incumbents Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Jusuf Kalla (JK) as candidates for president and vice president, respectively, in 2009. It is not difficult to find out why in his position as the chairman of Golkar JK does not rule out the possibility of this proposal.
The defeat of Golkar's candidates in several gubernatorial elections has led its leaders to rethink the party's chances in the upcoming presidential election. Unless Golkar wins a convincing 25 to 30 percent of the popular vote in the legislative election it is very unlikely that the party will nominate JK as its presidential candidate.
On top of that, JK understands very well that his chances of becoming president are not very high even if his party wins the 2009 legislative election. As a matter of fact, his main political liability is that he is not from Java -- to be precise -- he is from South Sulawesi. This is the reason why until now Golkar has seemed indecisive about nominating its own presidential candidate for the 2009 election.
Thus, the most realistic choice for JK is to maintain the status quo. JK's political calculations are not without opposition from different factions of Golkar. Those who oppose JK's proposal argue that as the biggest political party Golkar deserves to have its own presidential candidate. Thus, it is very likely that internal conflict among Golkar's factions will make it difficult for the party to sustain its political preponderance.
If the SBY/JK pair is indeed maintained in 2009, it is most likely that the biggest challenge will come from the coalition between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). There has been an enthusiastic discussion about the promotion of Megawati Soekarnoputri and the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) Speaker Hidayat Nur Wahid -- who is also a former PKS president -- as candidates for president and vice president, respectively, in 2009. There are various reasons why the PDI-P/PKS coalition will constitute a serious contender for SBY and JK.
First, the two parties represent two major constituencies of the Indonesian political community: The nationalists and the rising Islamic urban middle class. Over the past few years the two parties have consolidated their respective credentials in order to enlarge their outreach to voters. The PDI-P has been active in rebuilding its Islamic credentials by establishing Baitul Muslimin Indonesia as its instrument to attract Islamic voters.
At the same time, the PKS has made a serious effort to change its image to a sectarian party by telling the public that it supports pluralism and rejects the idea of establishing an Islamic state. On top of that, by winning the vice presidential seat in 2009, the PKS expects to secure a stepping stone to the top position in 2014.
Second, a quite convincing victory achieved by the two parties in several gubernatorial elections and the failure of the candidates from Golkar have strengthened their self-confidence that this achievement will affect their effectiveness in the 2009 elections.
Third, the global economic recession and its negative impact on the Indonesian economy will undoubtedly threaten the popularity of SBY and JK. In time of severe economic crisis, voters easily turn to new presidential candidates with the hope that he or she can mitigate their suffering.
And last but not least, the close cooperation between the nationalist and the Islamic group can contribute significantly to Indonesian political stability. One of the weaknesses of SBY and JK is their reluctance to ban the radical religious groups which have disturbed public order and social harmony through their anarchic activities.
With the victory of a combination of a nationalist Megawati Soekarnoputri and a religious Hidayat Nur Wahid problems of religious radicalism can easily be managed for the benefit of the Indonesian public as a whole.
The writer is a professor teaching at Department of International Relations of UNPAR Bandung. He can be reached at aleks@home.unpar.ac.id
