MONEY TO BURN: Women from Cimandala village in Bogor regency, West Java, wait in line for hours to buy four liters of heavily subsidized kerosene. (JP/Theresia Sufa)

The last time Indonesia had a general election and an economic crisis all in one year, we ended up with a regime change. That was 1998, when Indonesia was under an authoritarian regime.

As we prepare to usher in 2009, the similarities of the potent combination of an election and an economic recession inevitably bring us a sense of d*j* vu. But if the economic crisis in 1998 led to the collapse of the three-decade rule of the Soeharto regime, what will be the endgame in 2009?

These two events -- the elections and the recession -- will likely define Indonesia in 2009, perhaps more than any other issues. While the outcome of the elections will be very much in the hands of voters, the recession is something no one in this country can control because the nature of the economic crisis this time is global, rather than Asia-specific as in 1998.

What is certain about these two major determining factors is that they create even more uncertainty about the direction this country will take in 2009. At this stage, no one can predict how bad the economy will get, or who is going to win the parliamentary elections in April and the presidential election in July. We will just have to sit through it.

While most surveys point to the incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono getting a new mandate for a second five-year term in office, his handling of the economic crisis could be the final telling factor when Indonesians cast their votes.

Take nothing for granted at this stage.

What we know for sure is that the economic outlook is looking gloomier the closer we get to the end of 2008. With each item of bad news -- and there is always one every day -- our economic forecasters are being forced to revise down their growth projections for 2009.

The last time we checked, the forecast growth rates had been lowered to the 3 to 4 percent range, down from the 5 to 6 percent range only a month earlier.

We also keep hearing economic experts telling us that the worst is yet to come; in other words, the economy is going to get worse before it gets better. They cannot tell us how bad it will get, or how long this economic recession will last. Some are even already drawing an analogy between the present situation and the Great Depression of the 1930s.

How much credibility do we want to give to these "dismal scientists" if they totally missed foreseeing this recession only a few months ago? How did they switch so easily from a positive outlook to these gloom and doom predictions?

Without completely ignoring their warnings, we should welcome 2009 with a more positive attitude. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst is probably sound advice to follow.

Indonesia has at least two things going for it as it ushers in the new year.

It has the benefit of experience in dealing with a major economic crisis, and it has held two largely peaceful democratic elections in the past decade. Surely, we are much more prepared than we were 11 years ago, and probably even more prepared than other countries in the region.

In this economic crisis, Indonesia is fundamentally stronger than most other countries. While exports are an important component of the economy, their role is not as great as in other Southeast Asian countries, making Indonesia less vulnerable to the slump in the global demand for goods. Indonesian producers can always count on the 240 million people at home for their market base.

Indonesia's banking system is also healthier than most, certainly healthier than it was in 1998, with a low rate of nonperforming loans, and also reportedly more liquidity. Inevitably, there are one or two banks that escaped the tight central bank supervision and collapsed, but they have not led to the massive rush that shook up the entire banking system 11 years ago.

The biggest economic challenge for Indonesia in 2009 will be in eradicating the mass poverty that still affects more than half the population. The economic crisis and the ensuing job losses --and therefore income losses -- will likely condemn a few more million Indonesians to poverty.

Judging by the 1999 and 2004 elections, one can expect another peaceful and orderly series of national elections next year.

By and large, Indonesian voters, and perhaps to a lesser degree politicians, are prepared to accept the outcome of the elections as long as the process is transparent and accountable. No one, the losers or their supporters, would feel that they are being robbed if the electoral process is credible.

We should not read too much into the violence that erupted following the elections in some provinces and regencies.

Let's not forget, there have been hundreds of these elections in the past two years, but it is only the few that end up in chaos that get reported by the media.

Just because of a few bad apples, we should not dismiss the entire basket as rotten. There are many more shining examples across Indonesia where these local elections were successful in terms of the process and mechanism. They just don't get reported by the mainstream media.

Ultimately, how Indonesia will get through the difficult 2009 will be in the hands of our political leaders. President Yudhoyono and the Indonesian political elite could go back to 1998 and learn a thing or two from Soeharto, particularly about what not to do in handling an economic crisis.

Facing an election year, Soeharto made the fatal mistake of trying to salvage his presidency, rather than the economy.

He got himself reelected in March 1998 through another process that he largely controlled, but by then his credibility and political legitimacy had been so eroded that people, including those around him, began to lose confidence in his ability to lead.

The inevitable regime change sent the economy further south for one more year before the trend was reversed.

The biggest difference between 1998 and 2009 is that Indonesia today is a democracy and that the solution to its economic woes must somehow be found or must work through this democratic political framework.

If a new leader is what Indonesians need to captain this large vessel through the rough seas, then they shall have it. If the incumbent captain is deemed up to the job, then they will not replace him. This option was not available in 1998, as Soeharto stubbornly tried to remain in charge, until student-led people power forced him to step down.

This time around, democracy can become the nation's savior.

And yet -- a word of caution against placing too much hope in democracy in times of economic crisis: The extremists on both ends of the political spectrum are likely to try to capitalize on the misery and hardship of the people and will be hard at work seeking to win popular support for their cause. Adolf Hitler and his radical Nazi group got themselves into power in the Weimar Republic through constitutional means only to then grab power for themselves.

Democracy comes in a package that includes much more than just holding free and fair elections. There is the habit of respecting differences, the presence of effective checks and balances on political power, the credible if not strict enforcement of the law, transparency and good governance, an independent and free media, and a strong and credible judiciary, among others.

Indonesia still needs to perfect its democracy, but what it has today should be good enough to take it through the difficult 2009.

The writer is chief editor of The Jakarta Post.

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