Although the number of swinging and undecided voters remains high, the upcoming legislative elections will see three major parties win the most votes, a survey has shown.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, the Indonesian Democratic Party and the Golkar Party will dominate the polls, with five middle-size parties completing a pool of eight election contenders, fulfilling the necessary parliamentary threshold, the independent survey on voter behavior revealed Wednesday.
The survey was conducted from Feb. 9-19 and involved 3,000 respondents from across Indonesia.
Conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES), the Center of Political Studies at the University of Indonesia and the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), the study confirms previous surveys by other pollsters which found the Democratic Party topped the list.
CSIS researcher Sunny Tanuwi-djaja said that with 22.83 percent of respondents still indecisive about their party of choice, estimates for who will win the April elections remained too close to call.
"Everything is possible due to the sheer number of indecisive voters and the recent split between SBY and JK in the coming presidential election in July," he said, referring to President Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla.
He said undecided voters would most likely be guided by popular choices and vote for the three leading parties anyway.
"They won't choose parties with a slim chance of winning the elections," he said.
The survey found most respondents were happy with the Democratic Party, especially its founder Yudhoyono, who they said had a lot to prove.
“Many party advertisements highlight what his administration has done. He has influenced the public,” Sunny said.
The survey revealed a significant decline in the popularity of Islamic parties like the United Development Party (PPP), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) compared to the 2004 elections.
Several areas like West and East Java, previously strongholds for the PKS and PKB, have since been penetrated by the Democratic Party, the survey shows.
“We predict many PKS supporters in West Java have changed their interest to the Democrats because several key policies disappointed them,,” Sunny said.
West Java Governor Ahmad Heryawan, who is a PKS member, sparked controversy when he
called for the traditional dance with rapid gyrating moves to be toned down.
The survey also revealed that Yudhoyono would secure the presidency outright if he kept his winning partnership with Kalla.
“If they separate, there will probably be two rounds of elections," Sunny said, predicting that Yu-dhoyono would still need Golkar support and would pick former party chairman Akbar Tandjung as his running mate.
He said the survey was conducted before Kalla had not announced his presidential bid.
"We had not predicted the possibility of the Golkar Party and the PDI-P forming a coalition either," Sunny said.
Kalla is scheduled to meet Megawati for lunch Thursday in Menteng, Central Jakarta, for rare talks. (naf)
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