The quick counts and preliminary results of the real count in the legislative elections point towards an eventual victory of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party. The party leaders have begun to rethink coalition strategies in the lead up to the coming presidential election.
With around 20 percent of the popular votes, the Democratic Party's position is reasonably safe and it will not likely need to join forces with another party to nominate its own presidential candidate.
But, of course, to ensure its victory in the July 8 presidential election, and for a strong position in parliament, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) as the incumbent must build a coalition with at least one other political party.
Now that the Democratic Party has dominated the popular vote in the legislative elections, it has a wide range of political options to build coalitions.
SBY has the privilege of being able to determine the terms of reference for any coalition to be made. He did not have that luxury in 2004 because the Democratic Party only gained around 7 percent of the vote.
For instance, recently SBY stated that a future coalition should be based on a clear code of conduct. SBY realizes that widespread pragmatism among political parties has let people down.
Many see SBY's statement about the importance of rules-based coalitions as a disclaimer that he is not part of the pragmatic power-play that has characterized our politicians' behavior over the last five years.
On top of this, he was apparently expressing his disappointment with some past coalition partners who had refused to support his government's proposals and even strongly criticized them.
It is too early to say which party the Democratic Party will be team up with, especially in terms of its vice presidential nominee. Each future scenario has its own advantages and disadvantages. Let us focus on the most probable scenarios.
First, there have been a lot of discussions about the possibility of SBY and Jusuf Kalla (JK) teaming up again.
If this is the case then JK and other Golkar leaders should honestly admit their "sins" made during the campaign period in which they directly or indirectly portrayed SBY as a slow and indecisive chief policy maker.
With around 14 percent of the popular votes in the legislative elections, the Golkar Party could be a reliable partner for the Democratic Party in the upcoming presidential race, but there is an element of political liability in this scenario.
Many Golkar Party activists now see JK as someone who should be held responsible for the dramatic decline of their party's popular support.
With the Golkar Party's long term interests in mind, it may not be wise to have someone who has de-popularized the party in such a prominent government position.
Another complicated problem relates to the assumption that reuniting SBY and JK may exacerbate cleavages within the Golkar Party. Obviously, SBY's Democratic Party does not want to form a coalition with a fragmented political party.
As a mature political party with extensive experience spanning more than four decades, the Golkar Party is not lacking in its inventory of capable leaders. One of them is former Golkar Party chairman Akbar Tandjung.
It was Akbar who managed to reform the Golkar Party in the post-Soeharto era, and led it to its domination in the 2004 legislative elections. Therefore, Akbar remains an influential figure within his party.
It is not yet clear how much a chance Akbar has as a contender for the vice presidential post. The most important thing for Golkar leaders is to remain united and focused on regaining Golkar's former glory. If they are not united or it each of them only of personal interests, then, "the end of history" for the Golkar Party is really at hand.
Another scenario is for the Democratic Party to team up with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and nominate Hidayat Nur Wahid as its vice presidential candidate. As it turns out, PKS is the most successful among Islamic-based political parties and it has made a lot of progress in building an effective poll machine and cadreization.
As far as the Democratic Party is concerned, the problem with PKS is that it is still seen by many as "too rightist".
In order to satisfy the aspirations of its loyal constituents, PKS would need to endorse religious legislations that are anti-pluralist in nature. If this is the case, a collaboration with PKS in parliament would endanger the centrist branding of the Democratic Party.
Whichever scenario SBY takes, what is imperative is that SBY should handle his success with care. With its meteoric rise in the 2009 legislative elections, SBY's Democratic Party has replaced the Golkar Party at the top.
The decline of both the Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle were largely brought about by their failures to handle their success effectively.
In politics, as in many other endeavors, wise men always tell us that if we fail to handle our success, it will become our worst enemy.
The writer is a professor of international affairs.
