Commentary: Nightmare scenario: A constitutional crisis

Endy M. Bayuni ,  JAKARTA   |  Sat, 04/18/2009 12:06 PM  |  Headlines

Let’s stop congratulating ourselves about our democratic elections that confirmed Indonesia was the third largest democracy in the world. And let’s hold off all the praises from abroad saying we held another largely peaceful election.

We are facing a situation, a serious one, which could push the country to the brink of a constitutional crisis. Depending on how the political elite handles the aftermath of the April 9 parliamentary elections, things could unravel fast in the coming weeks.

Here is a not so implausible nightmare scenario.

The majority of parties, including one or two of the larger ones, refuse to accept the election results when those are formally announced May 9, pointing to — and rightly so — the millions of people who were disenfranchised by the process.

This would delay the rest of the electoral process, including the presidential elections scheduled for July 8. With President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s five-year mandate ending mid-October, Indonesia will have no government beyond that point. Our constitution does not say anything about temporarily extending the current government’s mandate, nor about the formation of an interim government.

We have never been in this situation before, which is why the 1945 Constitution does not address the issue. A country of 240 million people made up of diverse races, ethnicities, cultures and religions, spread over 17,000 islands without a government? Although this situation is unthinkable, many constitutional experts now fear it will unravel.

Every day we hear new stories about people who were not able to vote on April 9 as they were not registered. No one has been able to estimate the size of this group of disenfranchised voters, but the number is clearly very high. Political observer Effendi Ghozaly’s early estimate of 10 million disenfranchised voters (based on 20 voters excluded from each of the 500,000 or so polling stations) now seems like a conservative figure. Others have suggested the number is as high as 20 and even 40 million.

Regardless of what the actual figure is, it’s clearly huge. And regardless of the motives behind parties — including the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) — filing a lawsuit against the government and the General Elections Commission (KPU) over this issue, they do represent the aspirations of the disenfranchised voters.

Many voters are upset, angry and outraged at being deprived of their constitutional right to vote. Lest someone took the initiative to capture their feelings, they could easily vent their anger in the streets. This has not happened yet, thank God.

The nightmare scenario will likely happen if the PDI-P, as one of the three largest parties, refuses to endorse the parliamentary elections results on May 9.

The KPU and the government could afford to ignore the small parties (as they did in 1999) and rule the election results valid. But they cannot ignore the PDI-P, whose chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri is the only serious candidate facing SBY in the presidential elections. If she does not run, the elections in July will be a farce.

What is saddening about this whole episode is the government’s and the KPU’s response. They seem to have dismissed the grievances of disenfranchised voters as a minor problem and are keen to get on with the preparations for the July presidential elections.

Neither the KPU nor the government have bothered to try and explain to voters — whose rights were denied — what happened on April 9 and what remedial actions can be offered. To date, no one has taken ownership of this mess. Instead, everybody is trying to wash their hands of it and pass the buck to others.

The KPU blames the ministry of home affairs for providing an incomplete voters list in the first place, while the ministry says its job was done once the list was handed to the KPU. On Tuesday, the government broadened the ranks of culprits, saying political parties and voters were also to blame in this mess. On Thursday, President Yudhoyono put the blame squarely on the KPU in his televised address.

While everyone seems to be playing the blame game, no one has been able to tell the millions of disenfranchised voters what they plan to do about reinstating their constitutional right to vote.

The message from the government and the KPU is: “Let’s just move on, for the sake of expediency”. This sounds like an episode from the Soeharto years. Expediency was so much more important than substance, even the results were fixed before hand.

A revote would probably be prohibitively expensive, and some argue the results would not be that different as Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party would still win. But to argue this is to deny the people’s constitutional right.

At the end of the day, the nation’s political elite should be the ones deciding the proper course of action to take to avert a constitutional crisis. A revote may be the last option, but it should not be ruled out completely.

Megawati and her PDI-P party could endorse the election results, albeit with some reservations, but still allow the presidential elections to take place as scheduled.

But President Yudhoyono, as the head of the state, should take ownership of this whole mess, both on behalf of the government and the KPU and apologize to those voters whose rights were deprived.

For good measure, he should fire the entire KPU board as well as his minister of home affairs, the two institutions most responsible for this election mess. He should also fire his political advisors who keep suggesting he pass the buck to someone else.

Most importantly, he should offer a public apology. He will be surprised how the nation will appreciate the gesture. Most, if not all of the disenfranchised voters, would accept it and agree to move on.

But as the saying goes, sorry seems to be the hardest word to say in Indonesian politics.

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