A footnote on RI's elections

We have left the last legislative election behind and despite ongoing disputes over the eligible voter list (DPT) we have to give the government credit for the procedures this election utilised.

It was somewhat different from the elections of 2004 when voters only voted for political parties at the expense of the majority of votes. But in 2009, voters were given more freedom to elect their desired candidates or parties, under the terms that the majority of votes rules.

This mechanism has, inevitably, increased the accountability of each and every candidate, assuming that voters are familiar with candidates who can be held accountable for the next five years. Indeed, the majority vote and the direct election mechanism as such marked, once again, that Indonesia is indeed gaining its credentials as a procedural democracy, but not yet as a substantial democracy.

This is neither about whether Indonesia is yet to be considered as substantial democracy nor to assess the results of the recent election. It is more like a little footnote of personal interpretations of the ongoing confusing pre-presidential election situation.

Many Indonesians now share that our country is indeed remarkable in its political and economic development, but at the same time it is confusing because nothing is certain now. According to preliminary counts, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's party, the Democratic Party (PD), had won more than 20 percent of the popular votes which enabled the party to nominate Yudhoyono (SBY) to run again for the presidential election. It is also true that with that amount of votes, he can decide his running mate based on his own preference.

Here there are some possible scenarios. Premised on the developments of the last couple of days, PD has been left alone although it is still waiting for the Prosperous Justice Party's (PKS) final decision on whether or not to form a coalition with PD or otherwise. The likelihood of this coalition becoming a reality is high, given that first, Golkar is out of PD's net (which was the initial condition for PKS to dance with PD), and second, SBY needs to attract voters from grass-roots levels as well as to strengthen his bargaining position in parliament.

With 20 percent of the votes going to PD and 8 percent from PKS, plus more percentages from smaller parties, their parliamentary coalition could be rock-solid and incomparable even if, say, Golkar with 14 percent decides to form a coalition with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Sturggle (PDI-P) which also gained about 14 percent.

SBY's potential for re-election is undoubable. He was continually at the top of the polls prior to the legislative elections. From the latest observed developments in Jakarta, there will be two possible situations PD may face.

First, a Golkar-PDI-P led coalition. While many have said that it is unlikely for them to form an alliance, I would say otherwise with two scenarios: Megawati is PDI-P's undisputable presidential candidate with, speculatively, Prabowo as her VP candidate. This is fine and there is nothing new with this, and prediction has it these duets still cannot afford to bypass SBY (then with Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla as the VP).

The second scenario is given that Jusuf Kalla has decided to run against SBY, he would need more arsenal than anyone else in the league. He would need a young, bright, nationalistic and previously-unseen but determined nominee for his VP candidate.

Given the intensifying communications between the Golkar Party and PDI-P, it is not inconceivable to imagine JK to choose Pramono Anung, the current PDI-P Secretary-General as his running mate. Of course, with full approval from Megawati. Apart from the vivid combination of "first and second generations", this pairing would also serve the "Java and non-Java" interests.

In addition, in this composition both Golkar and PDI-P would regain the political power they have both been longing for. But the potential problem for this duet is not within Golkar, but PDI-P. Is Megawati ready? Should Anung later get more votes than her? Is the whole PDI-P organisational structure ready to see their long-standing patron surpassed by the younger generation? Finally, is PDI-P really a party whose regeneration works well and that is ready to actually undergo it?

If this happens, indeed this will be a good sign for Indonesia's democratic progress without any election boycotts or other unconstructive acts from those respected statesmen. This would also mean that the people would have more options for future leaders, which would be worth the ongoing confusion.

As Indonesian citizens, we can only hope for the best for this nation. The best outcome would be that politicians compete fairly, maintain political stability for the sake of our slowing economy this year, and to remember always that this election and power struggle is not the final destination of democracy but part of the long journey towards Indonesia's substantial democracy.

The writer is currently a PhD student of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London.