P

residential incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono ended months of speculation when news broke early this week that he had picked a running mate for the presidential election in July. But his choice of Bank Indonesia Governor Boediono has started a new round of no less intense speculations: What was he really thinking?

A trained economist with an aura of Javanese aristocracy, the soft-spoken Boediono hardly cuts the figure of a tough and astute politician, as Jusuf Kalla (JK), SBY's estranged vice president, has projected himself to be in the last five years. Although Boediono has had ample opportunity to understand the complexities of government and Indonesian politics, having served in three different administrations this past decade, he essentially remains a technocrat.

If everything goes according to plan, the Democratic Party (PD) will declare the candidacies of SBY-Boediono in the West Java city of Bandung on Friday, and submit their names to the General Elections Commission (KPU) in Jakarta by the Saturday deadline.

But the question that lingers in the mind of many is whether Boediono is the right choice for SBY's second term in office, which, going by all surveys, is now almost certain. What was his rationale for picking Boediono over 18 other names submitted by the party about a week ago?

JK, who is contesting the election on his own Golkar Party ticket, complemented the SBY presidency in several ways. In particular, he did much of the dirty work, including taking the rap for some of the government's more unpopular policies, so much so that many in Golkar blamed him for the party's poor performance during the April legislative elections. What started as a partnership on the basis of mutual interests of two equals in 2004 is now ending bitterly as it becomes clear that one party has benefited at the expense of the other. JK should have known that politics is a zero-sum game.

Unlike in 2004, when SBY found it in his interest to run with JK, this time around, the incumbent president is in a much stronger position to be able to dictate the terms, including his choice of a running mate. He no longer needs to rely as much on other parties or their VP candidates to get himself re-elected.

SBY could have chosen his VP from one of the coalition partners to strengthen his hold in the House of Representatives (a role that JK and Golkar play effectively). To the dismay of would-be partners, he ignored their nominations. One of them, his secretary of state Hatta Rajasa, would actually make a good candidate were it not for the fact that he comes from the National Mandate Party (PAN), thus raising questions about where his loyalty really lies.

If SBY has 2014 in mind, this would be a good time to groom a successor; the VP slot would be an ideal position to test his or her capability. Since the constitution limits a president to serve a maximum of two consecutive terms, SBY has to start thinking about the fate of PD, which has ridden to election victory on the back of his popularity, beyond his rein.

The choice of Boediono, a technocrat rather than a politician, reflects SBY's new priority once he gets re-elected: to have a strong presidency, one that will not be dodged by rivalries with his VP (the way it has been with JK). Given the nominee's background, presumably he wants to focus more on the economy. What is also certain is that Boediono won't be a threat to him, nor to whatever he plans for 2014 and beyond.

Historically, Indonesia has had both kinds of partnership whereby the number one and two leaders are of more or less equal strengths, or one comprising senior-junior partners.

The duets of Sukarno/Mohammad Hatta (1945-1956), Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid/Megawati Soekarnoputri (1999-2001) and SBY/JK (2004-2009) fall into the first category. Since they were equals, there were moments when they worked effectively, but also times when they became archrivals. Hatta resigned because of irreconcilable differences, Gus Dur was impeached, and JK is about to end his on a sour note.

All of Soeharto's vice presidents, from Sultan Hamengku Buwono IX (1973-78), Adam Malik (1978-83), Umar Wirahadikusumah (1983-88), Sudharmono (1988-93), Try Sutrisno (1993-98) to B.J. Habibie (1998) fall into the latter category. The first two helped to enhance Soeharto's standing, but all the others were so junior that they came to be regarded as nothing more than his "spare tire".

So what is Boediono bringing to the partnership, besides his strong knowledge and experience in handling the economy? Was he chosen simply because he was considered safe to SBY? Were there other strategic reasons? And what kind of vice president would he make?

The performance of the last five years, including snatching the parliamentary election victory last month, has confirmed SBY as a master political strategist. He is more a chess man than a high-stake poker player, which in politics, is sometimes inevitable.

Typically, his choice of Boediono reflects his decision to play it safe.