Targeting absolute power

Gigin Praginanto ,  Jakarta   |  Mon, 06/29/2009 12:36 PM  |  Opinion

Ahead of the July 8 presidential election, many Indonesians may fear a situation similar to that which has swept over Iran in recent weeks may take hold of this country when the results are announced.

But this is an unlikely scenario as the three truly democratic elections since 1999, including the country's first direct presidential election in 2004, took place not just democratically, but peacefully. But still, we can learn from Iran's recent experience.

It is hard to believe that vote rigging is the only thing encouraging so many Iranians to join in the massive street protests. But when understood in the context of Iran's political system, it is not a stretch to say the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad detonated a time bomb of accumulating public anger and Shiite-Sunni rivalry.

The public anger displayed in Iran is the tip of the iceberg. Most of those who oppose the government have hid their opinions, waiting for the right time to explode. With the legitimacy of the presidential election in question, the perfect opportunity presented itself and the battle cry "where is my vote" was sounded.

Thanks to the widespread availability of communications technologies, information was dispersed easily, adding fuel to the fire, despite the Iranian government's tight censorship of the mass media. The information boosts Iranian awareness of their social and political rig. They have been afforded better knowledge of the potential of the "people power" that managed to topple repressive regimes in the Philippines and Indonesia.

Under such circumstances, it is not an illusion that the real target of the protesters is the absolute political power of the ruling Ayatollah. They wish to dismantle the regime's authority to select candidates in both the presidential and parliamentary elections. They are seeking nothing less than to change the system so that the government is no longer subordinate to the ruling Ayatollah.

However, it would be hard to believe that the protests have nothing to do with the underlying Sunni-Shiite rivalry, and the anti-West stance of President Ahmadinejad. These factors are now playing an important role in encouraging protesters to fight on, despite the repressive action of security forces.

The oil rich Arab countries in the Persian Gulf are of course happy to support the Iranian protesters, and see low oil prices as an advantage. Well, it is because of low oil prices that Ahmadinejad has had to delay or cancel number of development projects, putting many Iranians out of work and leading them to blame the government for their problems. But Arab involvement in Iran has nothing to do with democracy or human rights, but is instead about Sunni-Shiite rivalry.

It is no secret that the rich Arab countries are absolute monarchies led by Sunni kings and Emirs, who maintain a special military relationship with the US in case of a threat from Iran. The Sunni leaders in this part of the world are anxious about the fast growing influence of Iran's leadership in the Islamic world, especially since Ahmadinejad adopted a ferocious stance on the prolonged Israel-Palestine conflict and stunned the world with its nuclear program.

Despite having different motivations, it is obvious that US and its Western allies would love to see Ahmadinejad toppled. Obviously, their priorities are quickly settling the nuclear issue and ensuring a friendly Iranian leader is in power, as Iran is a key player in Middle East politics. It is no secret that Iran is a supporter of hard line Islamic groups including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.

However, it is too early to say Iran will return to democracy easily; toppling Iranian leaders is not a new thing for the US. In 1953, a US-British sponsored coup overthrew the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq, installing an absolute monarchy with Shah Iran as king.

But reviving an absolute monarchy is just an illusion. So many Iranians still remember the cruelty of the Shah's security forces. As happened in Indonesia some 12 years ago, many pro democracy activists in Iran were killed or disappeared mysteriously during the Shah's reign. But unlike in Iran, where many of those responsible for the cruelty must live in exile or face fatal punishment, in Indonesia, many of them are still alive and even still have power and influence.

Will the post presidential election unrest in Iran inspire radical politicians in Indonesia to set a similar political fire?

Some indications have begun spreading in the political arena as supporters of oppositions camps repeatedly warn of the possibility of fraud tainting the presidential election, as was the case with the disenfranchisement of millions of voters in April's legislative elections.

Considering the different political systems - Iran is still ruled by an autocratic regime - it is very unlikely that Indonesia will be hit by post presidential election unrest. Democracy has been functioning in Indonesia in such a way that people have so many ways and chances to express whatever they have in mind and heart.

Hence, their anger has not been accumulating as it was in Iran.

The writer, a two-time recipient of the Nikkei Editor's award, is a journalist and former head of Tempo magazine's International News Desk. He lives in Jakarta.

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