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Indonesia: An ‘in-danger’ state?
Alexandra Retno Wulan , Jakarta | Thu, 07/09/2009 8:40 AM | Opinion
Foreign Policy magazine just released its 2009 Failed States Index (FSI) in its July/August edition. Unsurprisingly, Indonesia is still listed in the second “worst” category — titled the “in-danger” list.
It might be true that this period of time has been a very fragile period for states throughout the globe. The virulent global financial crisis, natural disasters and government collapses, the most ubiquitous features.
However, it remains important to examine more deeply what went wrong and who is to blame for the “in-danger” status, especially as Indonesians have the chance to change this reputation in the presidential election.
Foreign Policy examined 12 indicators of state vulnerability that cover social, economic and political issues. The 12 indicators include demographic pressures, refugees/IDPs, group grievances, human flight, uneven development, economic decline, state legitimacy, public services, human rights, security apparatuses, factionalized elites and external intervention.
Each indicator is ranked on a scale of 0 to 10, with 10 representing the most vulnerable; hence the total score is on a scale of 0 to 120, with 0 being the most stable.
For the last five years, Indonesia’s total score has ranged from 83.3 to 89.2, thus, Indonesia has repeatedly been listed as “in-danger”. Indonesia scored 84.1 in the 2009 Failed States Index (FSI), but scored 83.3 last year and 87 in 2005.
In the social indicators, Indonesia’s population growth rate increased the demographic pressures rating from 7 to 7.3, additionally, a lack of substantial improvements in state policy regarding minority groups, such as the banning of Ahmadiyah, the anti-pornography law and the relations between the state and the indigenous people of West Papua, led to a higher ranking in the group grievances indicator, 6.5 this year from 5.9 in 2008.
In the economic indicators, Indonesia undoubtedly suffered from the global financial crisis. Thus, the rating for economic decline rose from 6.3 to 6.9. Additionally, the government seemed to fail to deal with uneven development. Despite the fact that the government has expanded its decentralization policies, Indonesia still has vast disparities between urban and rural development, as well as unequal development in Java and Bali in comparison to other islands.
This combination of factors certainly increased Indonesia’s rating for uneven development from 8 in the FSI 2008 to 8.1 in the FSI 2009.
In the political indicators, the most striking increases were in the factionalized elites and security apparatus categories. These indicators signify the potential failure of the government to ensure civilian supremacy due to lack of civilian capacity to manage security spheres, and the failure to develop a mature democracy in Indonesia.
Military reform in Indonesia has successfully taken place and the military has retracted from day-to-day politics. It is about time to start the military transformation period to ensure that the score for the security apparatus category eventually declines. Additionally, the commitment to increase the welfare of soldiers and assurances for a better weapons system for the armed forces (TNI) would contribute greatly to insulating the possible emergence of praetorian guards that serve the interest of regime.
Moving from the rank of 60 to 62 is indeed a positive step for Indonesia. However, the fact that Indonesia is still considered an “in-danger” state, at least since 2005, cannot be considered an achievement.
Much work is needed to successfully manage a volatile economy, sectarian strife, disparities in development, effective government and professional armed forces. It is important for Indonesians to cast their votes for a future leader that will be able to switch the status of Indonesia from an “in-danger” state to one of stability.
The writer is a researcher at the politics and international relations department, CSIS Jakarta.
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MarkusHagenauer (not verified), Germany — Tue, 07/28/2009 - 2:23pm
Mothers are not allowed to complain about ill treatment in a hospital, children are imprisoned for gambling and Buchtar Tabuni got 3 years inprison for speeking out "referendum" in public. Tho losers of the election do not accept the vote, the military is still over the law and the press is faceing further restrictions. So i can´t understand, why people complaine about the score.Martono (not verified) — Thu, 07/16/2009 - 2:55pm
are you sure that we are on the second lowest position?? i just check it...and i didn't see that we are on the second “worst” category — titled the “in-danger” list.
Massie (not verified) — Thu, 07/16/2009 - 11:56am
I think Indonesia needs assessments like these! We need to keep our "cool" when we read reports like this and try to objectively look at our country and see and ask ourselves "how are we doing?" If one has not lived abroad and seen the progress of the world, one tends to be biased and one's nationalism tends to be very narrow minded. I think also that narrow mindedness leads people to be arrogant and not teachable. We need to have the spirit of humility to accept thoughts of others and move ahead and make the corrections that are needed. Comparing ourselves with our northern neighbors doesn't do us well, have we seen how they are doing? We can be grateful that we have gone through another presidential election without any significant problems where most of the complaints are made by those who have the right to complain because of their loss, but realistically, the Indonesian people have made their decision! I commend this media for posting the article.
Zaki zaim (not verified) — Wed, 07/15/2009 - 7:49pm
This report is nonsense and should be rejected. Indonesia has made huge strides in political and economic spheres and it is simply the imagination of Jakarta's detractors that would like to play down these successes for their own personal agendas.
I salute Indonesia for the improvements they continue to make and may Allah keep them on the path to success.
Muhammad sutartib (not verified) — Wed, 07/15/2009 - 2:46pm
Please, don't believe to this terrible report and tendensious. I'm sure Foreign Policy magazine wrote the report with hiden agenda, not fair in order to make our country become weaker. In my opinion Indonesia more better than its neighbor countries like Malaysia and Thailand in term of democracy. Indonesia is big country with million islands, multi etnics,many people characters and cultures, so if any riots was happened in few place that was not meant Indonesia is in "danger state".If that article said "Most of people in Indonesia lived below poverty line" I strongly agree. I think, become leader in Indonesia right now is more difficult than in most of another countries in the world even in the US, so Indonesia need strong and smart leader (in positive term).
Philipb (not verified) — Wed, 07/15/2009 - 7:11am
Hmmmm. I never thought of Indonesia as in danger of failing. When one of the specifics for this report includes, "anti-pornography bill", it makes me suspect of the whole report. How is anti-pornography associated with a failed state? Insane thinking! It's the same politically motivated, liberal baloney that we read in USA from the mainstream media. In this country it is directed against people, usually conservative Christians, who are against abortion or homosexual marriage.
Panji (not verified) — Tue, 07/14/2009 - 3:00pm
On a more technical side, I don't see any point from a researcher of a respected think tank like CSIS reprint a finding of a research done by a foreign publication. This type of article should be written by a reporter of this very newspaper, if we consider this finding to be worth discussing at all.
Alfan amiruddin (not verified) — Tue, 07/14/2009 - 11:57am
i think it is overrated. Indonesia can survive the economic depression early in this year, how can an in-danger state can do this kinda action. Iran would be more suitable for this naming, not Indonesia the most stable muslim-democracy integration
Danny Gerungan (not verified) — Sat, 07/11/2009 - 4:19pm
I think, we need to look at this reports as a feedback and a benchmarking study to the best-in class FSI states as one of the sources of metrics we can use to gage our nation continuous development process. However, we need to understand that all these meterics are inter-related. We can only improve some metrics if we have accomplished of the others and they are all strengthening each other out. Unfortunately or fortunately, political stability and rule of law, will always come first (though some may argue it's like chicken or egg thing) and sometimes it comes with a different type of form from the one preached by the west. This different form of stability was certainly scores low on FSI criteria but it's prerequisite for achieving the other metrics that were considered the most important by a state. Take an example of China, it scores lower than Indonesia on FSI overall metrics. However, if we use economy growth as a metric like GDP etc., it will tell totally a different story. So the FSI scorecard can be used as a yard stick for our progress as a nation, however we need to understand its dynamic and ramification to our nation phases development as well.
Evelyn (not verified) — Sat, 07/11/2009 - 10:53am
I have done couple of reports and presentation about Indonesia for my uni's projects and realized that some of the reports that published internationally are not reliable, it makes it like Indonesia is such a backward country. I think the world still see Indonesia in such a low standard country. I am a bit sad with this condition, yes, it is not a developed country but it is slowly developing, it is the third largest democracy in the world, that is big. Indonesia has achieved so much, it has been through a lot of things, from the achievement of its independence in 1945, a struggle between the communist and the liberal in 1948ish.. 1998 biggest economic and politic downturn.. and there are a lot of things to mention here.
I believe that Indonesia has a great chance as a country, also with the recent election, i am hoping to see greater achievements.