By now a number of Indonesian polling agencies have perfected their method of tabulating quick counts of the election results. The public has accepted their counts as being close to the official final result. In just a few hours after the closing of the voting booths Indonesians had a pretty good idea of the outcome of the election. This happened on April 9, 2009 with the legislative elections and again on July 8, 2009, the day Indonesians cast their vote to elect their president and vice president for the 2009-2014 period. This is a remarkable development.
The final, official count will be known in the next 10 days to two weeks. But at about 4 p.m. on election day, just three hours after the booths were closed in western Indonesia, it was clear that the incumbent, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), was the winner. By about 6:30 p.m., when the quick counts had covered 90 to 99 percent of the samples, there was no doubt that SBY and his running mate, the economic technocrat Boediono, had won the election in the first round. There is no need to have a second round like in 2004.
It was a landslide victory. Nationally, SBY won about 60 percent of the votes, followed by Megawati with about 27 percent, and Jusuf Kalla reaping the remaining 13 percent. To win, there is also a requirement to have more than 20 percent of the votes in 50 percent of the 33 provinces (or 17 provinces). In all but one province (South Sulawesi, Jusuf Kalla’s stronghold), SBY has gained more than 40 percent of the popular votes, and the simple average of the votes for him in those 32 provinces is about 59.4 percent.
His support in Aceh is as high as 94 percent. This is a strong mandate for SBY to run the country for a second (and last) term. His campaign slogan — Lanjutkan! (Continue!) — appears to have worked. Is it because the people acknowledge his achievements? Or is it essentially his personality? Or are other factors at play: political machinery, skillful campaigns? It may well be a combination of all those.
A close observation of SBY’s style of running the country over the past 56 months suggests that he must have had the determination from the start to run the country for the maximum 10 years allowed by the Constitution. Hence his cautious stance on most issues that borders on timidity as he wants to please everyone and avoid “rocking the boat” unlike his predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid who destroyed himself in the process.
SBY was accused of engaging himself mostly in a strategy of tebar pesona, namely of spreading enchantment. But his politik santun (well-mannered politics) has been praised. He has kept his good, and correct, appearance in public. These all have paid off well for him.
It is what will come next that is more important now for SBY and for the country. He should realize that he has won his re-election on his own and does not owe any political party in his formal (and nominal) coalition anything. Of course he should be thankful to several of his ministers, in particular the technocrats, who have served him well. He should also acknowledge that his Vice President, Jusuf Kalla, did a lot for him.
The lesson for him is that he can count on the professionals to help him run the country, but that they will have to be given full political backing. To some extent that was what Jusuf Kalla did when his was not forthcoming. Now SBY himself has to step forward to provide that political backing.
At an informal breakfast of six, including the author, the day after the G20 Summit in Washington, D.C. in November 2008, the President clearly stated that if re-elected he would become more decisive. He spoke about why he had taken a cautious posture as he thought that he needed to avoid a confrontation with the parliament as it could end in a situation as experienced before by Abdurrahman Wahid.
With the mandate he has received, he should now exert stronger leadership. He could appeal to the people that have elected him directly in case the parliament blocks him. Some thought he should have done that before given that he also gained 60 percent support in the 2004
election.
But it is important that he continuously communicates with and educates the people on key policy
issues, not only during political campaigning. In addition, in his second term he could be less risk shy as he has much less to loose, except for a good legacy that will indeed be lost if he cannot demonstrate leadership.
Albeit the strong mandate, SBY must uphold good governance and strengthen the democratic process. Indonesia’s democratic process has come a long way. The 2009 legislative and presidential elections are testament to this. It was unfortunate that the General Elections Commission is so incompetent, but fortunately this could be overcome at the eleventh hour with the decision by the Constitutional Court to allow voters to use their ID cards in the presidential election if they encountered problems with their registration.
This critical decision was greatly facilitated by SBY’s competitors, Jusuf Kalla in particular. In fact, by having the confidence to participate in the presidential competition, Megawati and Jusuf Kalla had saved the democratic process. From the beginning of the year polls have indicated that SBY was likely going to win with a very large margin.
But both Megawati and Jusuf Kalla believed in the system and were willing to give it a try. They were also serious in participating in the three rounds of the debate between the presidential candidates. These all bode well for Indonesia’s democratic consolidation.
A lot of resources were spent on the campaigns by all three candidates. It may be wasteful, but cannot be done without. It is an interesting subject for an in-depth study as to whether the campaigns have made and can make a big difference. Casual observation suggests that this has not been the case.
The public learnt nothing new from the campaigns, but the fun of it should be seen as an integral part of the process. People’s opinions, it seems, are gradually formed over a longer period of time.
Therefore, the incumbent has an advantage, but it depends on whether it is capitalized. SBY had done well on this score. An important task for him now is to create an environment that enables him to groom a new generation of political leaders that will take over the leadership from him in 2014.
The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
in Jakarta.
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