Adianto P. Simamora, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Sat, 09/26/2009 12:05 PM
Although rain patterns in parts of Indonesia have changed over the last 30 years, the climatology agency has remained cautious about linking shifting weather patterns to human-induced climate change.
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) however conceded there were strong indications climate change had caused changes in weather patterns.
"But, we still need to examine the evidence before making an official statement linking delayed rainfalls to climate change," BMKG's head of the climate change and air quality unit Advin Aldrian told The Jakarta Post recently.
The agency has recorded a month delay in rainfalls, including in East Java and recently in parts of Kalimantan and Sumatra provinces.
"In East Java, the weather patterns for the dry and rainy season have been established for the last 50 years," Advin said.
A study by Advin, published in the International Journal of Climatology in 2007, measures annual changes in rainfall from 1955 to 2005 in East Java.
This year, the BMKG predicted the rainy season would begin in November in most areas of the country, or a month later than last year.
The agency said the wet season had started in Aceh and the middle of Sumatra in September, and would begin in October for most parts of West Java and some parts of Bali.
In some eastern parts of the country, East Flores in East Nusa Tenggara and Merauke in Papua, the rainy season was expected to start in December.
The agency said this year's El Ni*o weather phenomenon - caused by an increase of the water temperature in the tropical Pacific - was partly responsible for the delay in rainfalls.
While the agency has not yet made a statement linking climate change to extreme events, other officials from the Office of the State Minister for the Environment and the Agriculture Ministry have repeatedly declared that climate change had been detected in Indonesia, as shown by irregular weather changes, rising sea levels and an increase in temperature.
The government said one of the sectors likely to be most-affected by delayed rainfalls and prolonged periods of droughts was the agriculture one.
The delays in the rainy season has caused longer dry spells in many areas across the country, leaving millions of people short of water.
Shorter rainy seasons with larger volumes of rainfalls have also led to more floods and landslides.
