With weeks more to go before the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December, there are concerns the meeting will fail to reach a new solid deal on climate change, to replace the Kyoto Protocol that will expire in 2012. The major concern is resistance from advanced countries to cut their emissions by between 25 and 40 percent by 2020. The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Rajendra K Pachauri, also the Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate in 2007, talked to The Jakarta Post's Desy Nurhayati about the issue on the sidelines of the recent 31st session of IPCC, in Nusa Dua, Bali. Below are excerpts:
Question: The IPCC has recommended advanced countries cut emissions by 25 to 40 percent by 2020. How do you see this process, considering there is still a lot of resistance from advanced countries?
Answer: The fact is that many people in advanced countries are not willing to accept changes, despite scientific evidence that the impacts of climate change are going to be very serious over a period of time.
I am not surprised that some countries are resisting actions or not being able to take committed actions, but I would also like to see the positive side ... every leader in the world, more or less without exception, is now convinced that actions have to be taken on climate change. And I hope this understanding will certainly lead to actions in the right directions.
Since the Kyoto Protocol has come into existence, we have not seen the kinds of actions that were expected. I mean, two countries refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol - the United States and Australia - although Australia then came back with the new government. But it's actually a little late for them to take actions that should have been made under the Kyoto Protocol.
At the same time, several other countries that have made commitments are far behind meeting those commitments. So, we have a lot of inertia, and it's not surprising that the Bali Action Plan, which called for deep cuts of emissions by 2020, has not really been given enough substance.
Despite the concerns, are you optimistic that the Copenhagen talks will lead to an agreement that will replace Kyoto Protocol and force advanced countries to cut their carbon emissions?
I think it will definitely lead to an agreement. And I think whether it will be an extension of the Kyoto Protocol, the Copenhagen Protocol, or go by a different name, the important thing is the major features of that agreement should support the scientific assessments of the IPCC.
If the world wants to limit temperature increases to 2 degrees Celcius, then they have to cut emission quite drastically by 2020.
What will IPCC do to urge the resisting countries to really take action to cut their emissions drastically?
What we are trying to do is to spread awareness on the scientific aspects of climate change, and I'm personally going from one place to another to do that. As you know, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon convened a high-level summit on climate change in New York last month, where there were hundreds of world leaders gathered, and I spoke at that event, and I recently spoke in Stockholm, where the prime minister of Sweden was present, as well as the president of the European Commission.
What we are doing is trying to bring scientific findings of the IPCC about climate change to the attention of the public, with hopes they will take immediate and necessary actions to deal with these issues. That's all we can do.
What is the focus of the AR5 (IPCC's fifth Assessment Report outlined during the 31st session)? What scientific statements does the IPCC want to bring to public attention?
This is a comprehensive assessment, and knowledge is moving on. We always try to capture the latest knowledge on climate change and come up with a faithful assessment. And since knowledge is moving ahead, certainly the AR5 will have a number of messages that will be stronger and different from the AR4. We can see this, but as yet we are still in the early stages of preparing this report.
Can you highlight some of the main issues on adaptation and mitigation efforts that will be included in the AR5?
Definitely. We will also have much greater focus on the socio-economic impacts of climate change. We will even look at lifestyle changes and ethics. The issue of ethics is something we have not looked into in depth in the past, and in this report we will do that.
How do you see the injustice issue, where there are people who emit less carbon who are worse affected by the impacts of climate change?
There is certainly injustice, this is an issue of equity and ethics, with the worst impacts of climate change felt by the poorest people in the world, even though they are not responsible for these problems. We should make sure actions on climate change really look at this aspect, and ensure that those countries responsible for the problems realize their responsibility. We are going to look into all aspects about the injustice and equity problems in the AR5.
What do you expect from the Copenhagen forum?
I hope we can reach an agreement that the world will accept, especially concerning adaptation and mitigation on climate change. I hope developed countries will provide developing countries with funding and access to technology. It doesn't matter whether the agreement will be an extension of the Kyoto Protocol, or whether it will be a new document. The important thing is we have the right content - whatever the world agrees on. The agreement should be solid, and I hope this happens.
