President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono met with US President Barack Obama in Singapore on Nov. 15, 2009 where they renewed their commitment to "comprehensive partnerships" as well as "future cooperation" in various fields including climate change, food security, and energy security.
President Obama reported they discussed some of the "broader challenges of getting a meaningful Copenhagen agreement".
Whenever and however the world comes to avoid dangerous climate change, the fundamental political, technical, and institutional building blocks are known. The "broader challenges" are known.
We know what we have to do - whether in Denmark in December or in Mexico in 2010, whether through a single deal sealed under the auspices of the United Nations or a patchwork of bilateral and multilateral agreements based on aligning national interests, and whether or not every single nation is ready and willing to play its role today.
We know how much greenhouse gas we can emit to stay safe, and we know how to implement most of the "wedges" of the overall solution.
On the oft-cited stumbling block of how to share the cost and workload, practicable methods have been proposed that take into account past contributions to the problem, current technical and financial capabilities, and the future impacts of climate change.
How we manage the planet's terrestrial carbon (carbon stored in forests, peatlands, soils, and vegetation) is one of the essential "wedges", offering up to 50 percent of the near-term solution.
It is particularly important in Indonesia - one of the top five greenhouse gas emitters. According to the Government's National Council on Climate Change (DNPI), "emissions from peatland amount to roughly 45 percent of Indonesia's current GHG emissions, and forestry accounts for over 35 percent".
It is therefore no surprise that Indonesia has been working to include terrestrial carbon (especially forests and peatlands), in the United Nations climate change negotiations.
At its heart, the solution for terrestrial carbon in an international agreement is simple. Four elements are required, and there is no reason for world leaders to shy away from agreeing to them in Copenhagen - regardless of the outcome of the overall negotiations:
1. Include incentives for carbon capture (reforestation, soil management, etc) and carbon storage (avoided emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, etc) in forests and peatlands in the post-Kyoto Protocol period (starting 2013).
2. Commit to developing the technical capability to robustly include greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration from agriculture and other land uses as soon as possible (aiming for 2013).
3. Agree simplified rules to reward those countries - including Indonesia - that have taken early action on terrestrial carbon management even before the detailed rules are known.
4. Provide the long-term mandate and financing to finish building the international institutional infrastructure necessary to guide and coordinate the implementation of terrestrial carbon mitigation at the required scale over the next thirty years.
Its elements are straightforward, but such an agreement is just one step along a path that started well before the 2007 Bali Roadmap and will continue beyond 2013. Regardless of the framework that international diplomacy delivers, we must respond to climate change. Faced with indecision and gridlock in global negotiations, bilateral and multilateral initiatives must proceed, as some already have.
For some time, Indonesia and many other forest countries have been actively developing and implementing their strategies and demonstration activities for REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus other land management activities).
Many of these actions, led by the forest countries themselves (with support from multilateral agencies, NGOs, and developed countries), have been undertaken in anticipation of a December agreement.
And Indonesia, along with others like Brazil, Guyana, India, and Mexico, has been building human capacity as well as measuring and monitoring systems for national carbon accounting.
Indonesia has led the world on preparing the institutions and regulations required for on-the-ground implementation at the national, provincial, and local levels.
Whatever the December outcome, the international community must decide if it will build on these achievements or let them wither. Good intentions and postponed agreements will not sustain this momentum.
History has already shown us how long it can take to turn an agreement on paper into action on the ground. The Kyoto Protocol was a 20-page deal. Adopted in 1997, the detailed implementation rules (the Marrakesh Accords) were not finalized until 2001. The Protocol itself did not come into force until 2005 and the first commitment period did not begin until 2008. Eleven years between agreement and action. Eleven years of relative inaction on an urgent problem.
The first methodology for a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) forestry project was not approved until 2005, in China. The first African CDM forestry project was approved last month, becoming only the eighth reforestation project to be given the green light.
To maintain momentum on forest and other terrestrial carbon mitigation, financial and technical support is needed for basic "building blocks" - to address gaps in human and technical capacity, information accessibility, infrastructure, and expertise as well as to ensure credibility and transparency of the system.
These are non-controversial actions world leaders can agree to in Copenhagen. They do not prejudice the details of a final overall climate deal.
Support for getting "ready" before carbon markets and a comprehensive climate deal are in place, is just as important as the expectation of demand for carbon credits afterwards.
This is the only way to ensure that countries and the international system can deliver real mitigation at the scale and pace required. Be it through an existing mechanism such as the CDM or something new, a mix of funding is required. Not committed, but delivered. Not in 12 months or two years, but today.
But perhaps we have all been focused on the wrong place, while the developing world has taken the reins. Perhaps the developed world has missed its time, its moment of opportunity.
Over the long run, climate change will be solved by the ingenuity, courage, and energies of the politicians, entrepreneurs, and local citizens in developing countries. That is where the bulk of the planet's people live.
And signs are they are taking it. Witness the growing "south-south" trade - and aid. Witness the growing commitments from developing countries to combat climate change at home. The ground-breaking Climate Change Green Paper to be released by Indonesia's Finance Ministry this week.
Look at Bolivia with over half the world's lithium. Sparsely populated Brazil with rich water, forest, and hydrocarbon resources. China with one-sixth of the planet's people, looming water and desertification crises, investments across the globe, and last week's commitment to reduce its carbon intensity.
In this world, is the post-World War II order relevant any more? The UN, the Bretton Woods institutions, GATT, the WTO and NATO?
Whatever the answer to that question, the sheer size of the terrestrial carbon opportunity demands our collective will. The planetary extent of the challenge demands courage. Now is the time for cooperation, action, and commitment, not finger-pointing, indecision, and stagnation.
Those that have shown vision by acting early should not be penalized. Those that have led the way are waiting for the rest of the world to step up. For them, this issue is not exotic: It is part of the inescapable everyday. They don't need future cooperation - they need action today.
In this world, it is no surprise that Yudhoyono plans to attend the Copenhagen talks. He is among the best poised to deliver an outcome that works. We wish him well.
The writer is convenor and chair of the international Terrestrial Carbon Group, Senior Policy Fellow at the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, and visiting scholar at the Center for Environment, Economy, and Society at Columbia University. He can be reached at ralph.ashton@terrestrialcarbon.org
