For farmers from Gunungkidul regency, Yogyakarta, natural signs have long been an important indicator of when to plant crops. However, due to the impact of global warming, such signs are no longer so reliable.
In October this year, tens of thousands of hectares of rice paddies were struck by drought, forcing farmers to seek new ways to manage their agricultural activities.
"We used to use the star constellation of luku *plow* as a sign to start planting rice, but we were wrong when we followed it this October," said Supriyanto from Boto Tengah subdistrict in Rongkop.
The emergence of the luku star constellation, according to Supriyanto, indicated imminent rainfall, thus telling farmers to start planting their seedlings, cultivating the fields and planting rice.
This October, however, the much-awaited rain never fell, prolonging the already existing drought. As a result, most of the newly planted rice plants died, while a few that survived failed to grow well.
"It confused us. This is the first time that rainfall did not follow the emergence of the luku star constellation," Supriyanto said.
Thanks to the condition, many farmers were forced to spend extra money on seedlings, cultivating fields and planting rice.
"I spent an additional Rp 250,000. This excludes the losses I suffered from the last planting season," Supriyanto said.
Another farmer, Danang, from Jepitu, said the last planting season and prolonged drought also dried-out the bushes and forests forcing rats to enter the seedling sites for food.
"That was because there was no food left in the bushes for them to eat," Danang said.
Both Danang and Supriyanto expressed fear this year's harvest would drop by more than 30 percent. Rainfall has been the main source of irrigation in the dry, barren region of Gunungkidul as it is located on the karst hills where technical irrigation facilities have not yet been installed.
Data from the regency crops agency shows that Gunungkidul has over 52,000 hectares of agricultural fields, 90 percent of which are on the hilly regions that mostly depend on rainfall for irrigation.
The agency's head, Dwinggo Nirwanto, said his office could not do much to help the farmers as the condition was a natural phenomenon.
"All we can do is communicate with the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency *BMG* for weather forecasts," Dwinggo said.
He also said the impact of the last planting season affected almost all agricultural fields in the region and was likely to decrease rice production. "We will know for sure after the harvest," he said.
Climate and weather analyst Sigit Hadi Prakosa, from the BMG in Yogyakarta, said the late planting season was due to a number of factors.
Among them, he said, included the El Nino phenomenon as indicated by the increase in temperatures across the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean.
"As a consequence, vapor is drawn into the Pacific and therefore rain never reaches Yogyakarta," Sigit said.
Other factors include the emergence of a tropical storm in North Papua that prevented the wind carrying the vapor from reaching Java. This, according to Sigit, was an anomaly as tropical storms normally occurred in the north of Australia or in South Nusa Tenggara.
This month, he added, the dipole mode phenomenon, or the increase in temperatures across the western parts of the Indian Ocean, had caused colder weather patterns on waters in the western part of Sumatra and hotter weather in East Africa.
"As a result, parts of the vapour are drawn into Africa," said Sigit, adding that it was also an anomaly and caused a shorter climate cycle.
