The National Mandate Party (PAN) is almost certain to elect Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa as its new chairman, with strong backing from party founder Amien Rais. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono also clearly supports his close aide.
Hatta has shown strong intent to control the PAN. In addition to being used for political bargaining when dealing with Yudhoyono, control of the party will minimize the potential opposition to the government. Yudhoyono has also an interest in keeping the PAN as a solid part of his coalition.
Besides the Yudhoyono factor, Amien as the charismatic leader of the PAN will play a role in determining who chairs the party. Amien has an interest in gaining clout over the PAN leadership.
Although Hatta’s chances are better than those of other contenders, winning the race without Amien’s consent would not be a perfect victory.
Therefore the Amien factor can also be regarded as key in rounding out the victory. This factor is quite important in the race for party chairman.
Based on experiences from the leadership race in the party’s 2005 congress, Amien gave his blessings to Soetrisno Bachir and shunned Hatta’s bid.
However, his position and influence at this 2010 PAN congress are not as strong as in the previous congress, especially now with the Yudhoyono factor in the equation. Therefore Hatta’s chances of winning are safe.
Hatta is also renowned as an accomplished lobbyist, an expert in political communication and a staunch supporter of Yudhoyono’s.
Amien’s stance of challenging the PAN’s place in Yudhoyono’s coalition seems to be unrealistic. If he challenged Yudhoyono directly and lost, he would lose all credibility within the party.
If Hatta wins the chair, as expected, the victory would complete Yudhoyono’s victory. The next question then becomes, who really won the competition?
Officially, it would be Hatta.
However, the real winner from the PAN congress would actually be Yudhoyono.
The President’s position as chief patron of the Democratic Party clearly gives him some interest in increasing the party’s clout. One way to do this Democratic Party would be to check the development of other parties. Hence Yudhoyono’s move to call up the chairpersons of coalition parties to his Cabinet is a way of shoring up the government and keeping the parties under his influence.
Therefore, if Hatta won the PAN chair, it would complete the power of the coalition supporting Yudhoyono. United Development Party (PPP) chairman Suryadharma Ali is already under the control of Yudhoyono, through his appointment as minister of religious affairs. The National Awakening Party’s (PKB) Muhaimin Iskandar is also towing the line, after being named the minister of manpower and transmigration.
Tifatul Sembiring, the minister of information and communications, had been the chairman of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) at the time of his appointment, but has since stepped down from the party post. Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie a former coordinating economic minister and coordinating public welfare minister, is also close to Yudhoyono.
Thus not only does Yudhoyono control the Democratic Party, he also controls other parties indirectly. In this context, the Democrats benefit from this situation, whereas the other parties are actually at a disadvantage.
This means there is a risk the PAN will fall under the shadow of Yudhoyono, and in the long term this situation will taint the party’s image ahead of the 2014 elections.
The PAN will no longer be perceived by traditional and potential voters as a party that carries the spirit of reform, should this image of being part of the ruling coalition persist.
Even if the government’s image improves, the PAN will not share the improvement in image. This will affect the PAN’s chances at the polls in 2014.
The writer is a political analyst and researcher at the Indonesian Institute, Jakarta.
