Indonesia expects the value of its non-oil and gas exports to grow by between 7 and 8.5 percent this year on the back of healthy global demand and prices, says the Trade Ministry.
Deputy trade minister Mahendra Siregar told reporters Tuesday the recovery of global demand for Indonesian products had been spotted since the end of last year and was likely to remain on a positive trajectory for further price increases.
Mahendra said that Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports faired better than expected in the fourth quarter of last year.
“As a result, both total and non-oil and gas exports for the whole year did not decline as low as anticipated earlier,” he said.
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded US$97.47 billion in non-oil and gas exports in 2009, down by 9.7 percent from the $107.89 billion recorded in 2008. Non-oil and gas imports reached $77.87 billion last year, down by 21 percent from $98.64 billion in 2008.
The total exports stood at $116.49 billion in 2009 — a 15 percent drop from $137 billion booked in 2008 — while total imports dropped 25 percent to $96.86 billion in 2009, from $129.2 billion in 2008.
Indonesia’s trade balance for the fiscal year reached $20 billion in surplus in 2009, a 150 percent increase from a 2008 record. Surplus in non-oil and gas trade balance alone increased by 112 percent in 2009 from a year earlier, he said.
The Trade Ministry expects the total value of all exports will expand by a modest 5.1 percent by the end of the year. In response to the ministry’s forecast, Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) chairman Sofjan Wanandi, said the target by the ministry was “moderate”.
“It is expected the world will grow positively [this year], whereas it had previously been negative,” he told The Jakarta Post.
Therefore, he said, it was normal to see higher demand and higher prices for Indonesian products this year, which would both cause non-oil and gas exports to expand.
“But our exports will grow more on higher prices instead of demand,” Sofjan said.
“On the other hand, our manufacturing sector is not growing much because there is [relatively] no new investment coming in,” he added, underlining the country’s main issue was unemployment, which could be solved by new investment.
Moreover, he said, Indonesia would still export raw materials in a large amount, rather than finished products.
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