Last year, I wrote an article that said a big population was good for the economy. As it turned out, the big domestic market size, healthy purchasing power and a tendency to save that kept the big economies of Brazil, China, India and Indonesia from sinking, at least for now. When another great crash hits the world again, these same economies might also sink if they do nothing to reverse the declining trend of population growth.
When the recession started in the United States, signs of a contagious global economic recession suddenly became imminent. The wreckage of the US financial ship sent a profound effect to the rest of the world economy: Bankers and financiers are the ones to blame.
However, if we look at the market fundamentals more carefully, we realize that bankers are not the only cause of the global economic crisis; also to blame are the ordinary people who do not believe in the future and have few or no children. The United Nations published a report last year drawing attention to the problems being created due to a rapidly aging world population and declining birth rate. (By Stefan S. Handoyo, Jakarta)
Your comments:
The next global recession will come from conflict. Conflict arising from the have-not majority (without good reason) taking bloody revenge locally against the have minority (Indonesia, be warned), and between the ever-increasing rift between nations caused by those who continually meddle and try to inflict their greed and values on others.
Phentramin D
The United States
An ageing population represents a challenge, but also an opportunity. Only one out of ten Indonesians reaching old age receives a formal pension. The rest continue working and contributing to their households, communities and to the national economy.
The demographic transition needs a more thorough analysis. The total dependency ratio in Indonesia (the proportion of people less than 14 and more than 60 years old compared to the population of working age) will reduce from 49 in 2010 to 43 in 2025.
This is called the demographic dividend. If states use this demographic dividend to invest wisely, and to adopt their social and economic policies, ageing should become not "the cause of the next global recession" but perhaps the reason for building more caring and productive societies.
Eduardo Klien
Jakarta
The declining trend in birthrate for Western societies will not reverse until the process of child rearing can be automated. Only the ability to buy child-raising robots that can reduce the overall time burden will induce Western women to have babies.
Since AI technology is advancing very slowly, I expect that it will take 100 years or more to do this. So the real question is: Will the West have the time, or will Islamic societies overrun the world before this technology is available?
Andrew P.
The United States
"The population growth must come in a natural way as the economy progresses." So you say. But, isn't this remark contrary to the premise of the rest of your piece.
Should you not have said: "The economy progresses in a natural way as the population grows"? This reversal of cause and effect seems more suitable to your premise and the facts on the ground.
Mike Flynn
New York
