Democratic Party chief race in SBY’s hands

The Democratic Party holds its congress on May 21-23 and is set to elect a new leader to head the party until 2015. The candidates have all traded  claims of political support for the top post, with an eye on party founder President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The Jakarta Post’s Ridwan Max Sijabat and Hans David Tampubolon look behind the rivalry for the chairmanship and the possible interests of the President himself.

Banners for the Democratic Party in a Jakarta rally are seen in this March 2009 photo. The party congress this weekend will be watched for changes in its leadership and its role in the pro-government coalition now coordinated by Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie. JP/R. Berto Wedhatama

Like the rank and file, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has only one vote in the Democratic Party; as party founder and President, he  obviously  has the final say regarding where the party goes and who leads it.

Moreover, the party’s elite are aware of Yudhoyono’s role  in the party: It’s practically his party after he set it up in October 2002 to run for the presidency — and the party lacks other figures. The Democratic Party, says one candidate for the chairmanship, “must learn to crawl and then walk” out of Yudhoyono’s shadow. “It can’t forever stay in Yudhoyono’s lap,” Anas Urbaningrum said.

The young party gained 56 seats in the House of Representatives in 2004 and 148 seats in the 2009 election and it was Yudhoyono’s popularity and victory in 2004’s first ever direct presidential election, which was seen as the main contributor to the party’s victory in the last general election.

So far only three candidates are contesting the race to chair the Democratic Party.

They are Youth and Sports Minister Andi Alfian Mallarangeng, Anas, who  chairs the Democratic Party wing at the House, and House Speaker Marzuki Alie. All three announced their candidacy after winning political support from the party elite and regional functionaries months ahead of the congress.

Marzuki retracted his candidacy but insiders are grumbling about his continued campaigning at the grass roots, so it’s left to the congress to decide the eligible candidates prior to elections.

Andi, the boyish 47-year-old, and Anas, the youngest candidate at 41, are running head to head in opinion polls, but who the President wants is  clearly a crucial factor.

Marzuki, 55, remarked that this was unavoidable and democratically valid, given Yudhoyono’s position as party founder and vote getter.

“He has repeatedly exercised his strong will on what the party has to do and who has to lead it to fully support his government until 2014,” he said recently.

Meanwhile, support is pouring in for Andi from the party’s regional functionaries who said they learned that the President, through his youngest son Edhie “Ibas” Baskoro, was behind Andi — but for questionable motives.

Ramadhan Pohan, who chairs Andi’s campaign team, claimed that Andi’s bid for the party’s top post had gained support from 86 percent of the party’s provincial and regional branches nationwide.

Andi thanked  Marzuki for his formal withdrawal from the race and called on Anas to follow suit, offering him the strategic post of party secretary-general.

“I am bidding for party’s top post not to contend the 2014 presidential election. I do it to show my loyalty to the President and our urgent task is to maintain the current government until 2014. I will not run in the next presidential race,” Andi said.

The First Family’s apparent support for Andi, as indicated by Yu-dhoyono’s son Ibas, is because of this loyalty, analysts say — a loyalty to ensure that Yudhoyono runs for a third term if he can gather support for the potentially controversial proposal to amend the Constitution, which limits a presidential term to two consecutive periods.

Apart from being more popular, Andi is “closer to the President and his family. And the President relies on him to serve the First Family’s interests, which he failed to get from Marzuki and Anas,” Arbi Sanit said.

The analyst added that the party blamed Marzuki and Anas for its defeat in the House’s procedural inquiry into the Rp 6.76 trillion (US$716 million) Bank Century bailout. Most legislators said the government made the wrong decision to save the bank.

Political analyst Maswadi Rauf said Yudhoyono seemed to support Andi not for his expertise in public administration but for his wider “fan base” compared to the other candidates, and his loyalty to the President, at least to support his government until 2014.

The analysts point to a budding Soeharto-esque talent in Yudho-yono, in engineering, step by step, a guarantee to stay safely in power until 2014 and build support for a possible third term.

The appointment of Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie as coordinator of the Democratic Party-led ruling coalition “is expected to maintain the Yudhoyono-[Vice President] Boediono leadership until 2014,” Maswadi said.

Yudhoyono’s turnabout stance towards Aburizal, from potential political foe to ally, may lead to Yudhoyono turning a blind eye to the business problems of Aburizal’s family, including the protracted case of the Sidoarjo mudflow widely blamed on his drilling company Lapindo, and allegations of tax evasions, analysts say.

Arbi cited the “intervention” of the presidency into having a pro-government figure lead Nahdlatul Ulama, the country’s largest Muslim organization, which claims to have 40-million followers.

At the recent congress of the National Mandate Party, its candidates for the leadership were reduced to one — Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa, the President’s trusted aide who now chairs the party.

With the main political parties and mass organizations in his hands, Yudhoyono may have smoothed the way to a constitutional amendment should he want to run again, Arbi said.

Another analyst, J. Kristiadi, criticized Yudhoyono’s “politics of patronage and PR”, referring to the tendency to award only those loyal to the leader, and Yudhoyono’s penchant for rhetoric instead of delivery.

Arbi said Yudhoyono would use the coalition and the Regional Representatives Council to amend the Constitution to seek re-election.

“Or, he will likely use his popularity, his party and the coalition to nominate his wife Ani in the 2014 presidential election. To win support from Golkar and the coalition, he could have [Aburizal] be Ani’s running mate,” he said.

Support for the amendment could come about with an economic growth of at least 7 percent in the next four years, Arbi said.

But allowing more than two consecutive presidential terms  would be “a setback”.

A crucial struggle of the reform movement, he said, “was to end presidency for life such as Soeharto’s”.