The surprise election of Anas Urbaningrum as Democratic Party chairman reflects political maturity within the ruling party, but analysts doubt whether the new leader will be the one making the crucial political decisions in 2014.
Anas’ biggest challenge during his leadership is the party’s founder and chief patron President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, analysts said. Yudhoyono is set to head the party’s high assembly, widely seen as a super body within the political party.
“Headed directly by Yudhoyono, it holds the highest authority. Every single decision made by the Democratic Party can only be implemented after it is approved by the assembly. It also decides on the party’s next presidential candidate for the 2014 elections,” Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a political analyst from the Indonesian Survey Institute told The Jakarta Post on Monday.
The Democratic Party will have to find a presidential candidate other than Yudhoyono for the 2014 election as the Constitution stipulates that a president can only serve two terms.
It has been speculated that Yudhoyono will nominate those close to him — including his own wife Kristiani “Ani” Yudhoyono — to keep his clout in the government after he steps down.
A member of the Democratic Party patron board, Hayono Isman, said that Ani deserved to be named a presidential candidate due to her vast experience in accompanying Yudhoyono during official state visits and ceremonies.
Anas said it was too early to think of running for president in 2014, but he also ruled out the possibility of nominating Ani.
“President Yudohoyono has several times stated that the first lady should not be nominated for the party’s top post and as the next president. The party has yet to decide whether its candidate for the next presidential election [in 2014] will be recruited either from the party or outside it,” he said.
Burhanuddin said the high assembly, which has not yet been officially established, was likely to ensure the leadership produced by the Bandung congress would not undermine Yudhoyono’s political power.
“Anas was actually the candidate that received the least support from Cikeas [a common reference to Yudhoyono’s family],” he said.
Anas defeated Marzuki Alie and Andi Mallarangeng, who gained the support of Yudhoyono’s son Edhie Baskoro, in the first round of voting during the election of the party’s chairman on Sunday.
Ramadhan Pohan of the Democratic Party dismissed allegations the planned creation of the high assembly was designed to maintain Yudhoyono’s hold over the party.
“The assembly will ensure there will be discussions and sharing of ideas. There will be no monopoly. Yudhoyono guarantees democracy will work in the assembly and the Democratic Party as well,” he said.
A political expert from Yogyakarta’s Gadjah Mada University, Arie Sujito, said that Anas’ biggest challenge would be maintaining his independence as chairman and modernizing the Democratic Party so that it was less dependent on Yudhoyono.
Arie also said that Yudhoyono’s shadow of influence would still be lurking within the party if the President decided to name his youngest son, Baskoro Yudhoyono, as one of the party’s central board chairmen.
