I

t’s official: The caged Indonesian tiger is going to roar. But last week’s presidential pronouncement comes as no revelation to the captains of industry from across all sectors of the consumer economy. They will tell you business is good. They’re investing, they’re hiring, their cash registers are ringing. The advertising industry, always a good barometer for the business climate in any country, is looking confidently skywards.

Consumer confidence is at an all-time high. The Roy Morgan measurement for the April-June quarter is at 131 for Indonesia, with the country’s 3-speed economy of Big Cities, Other Urban and Rural in a rare display of singing to the same tune at the same time. It is similar to Roy Morgan’s Australian number for the quarter, just across the big ditch. The two different economies are looking up, for different reasons. But the one common thread in both the national outlooks is Asia, the pot of gold that the world at large will be eyeing for decades to come.

It would take national mismanagement of gigantic proportions to derail these two economies. The voters in both countries appear to be pleading with their leaders to keep their hands off the wheel, leaving the economic engines to run on their own with just the necessary switching of tracks by their central banks.

Last week’s annual pardons celebrate the independence of the world’s third-largest democracy on the one hand, and its apparent dependence on corruption on the other. Some of the most celebrated convicts behind bars for getting caught with their sticky fingers in the people’s savings jar, received significant reductions in their sentences. Supporters of the president will say this is customary; critics will portray it as a presidential pat on the back. Either way, the event continues the seemingly unending black comedy that is making the country look more and more like a banana republic.

In recent months, the people of Indonesia have seen the press continuing to do its job, under duress. The fifth column at work is perhaps the only reason that three out of four Indonesians continue to believe that “democracy is working in Indonesia”. That’s perhaps because the press corp continues to shine the torch on the highest echelons of the national police, some of whom appear to have amassed wealth beyond their means. The torch-bearers have been paid back for their efforts with mysterious attacks by apparently unknown third parties. The official response by the national leadership has been promotions and transfers, with scant respect to public opinion. Journalists have supported the valiant efforts of corruption watchdogs, blowing the whistle on conspiracies allegedly weaved by the police and the AGO acting in unison, on apparent perjurers from both these institutions. The confused stories, the contradictions and the retractions put out by these defenders of justice would be laughable, except for the fact that they aren’t funny. These are but a few of the high-profile dramas that continue to play out in the public domain. They are taking their toll.

A leadership seemingly obsessed with being loved by the people is missing the plot by a country mile. The “L” word keeps popping up in the presidential vocabulary, but in real terms he isn’t getting much these days. That’s because silence is often construed as consent, inaction as blessings. Consequently, three key measurements of the Good Governance monitor have reacted violently. “Corruption is one of the major problems affecting this country” rocketed up by 5 points to an all-time high of 89 percent. No surprise there. “I don’t trust the current government” shot up 7 points, with 36 percent of the population agreeing with the statement from across the country. No prizes for guessing which way that arrow is heading this quarter.

While the country hasn’t collectively given the thumbs-down on “the government is doing a good job running the economy” just yet, city-folk are increasingly nervous. They have been shedding around 4 percentage points each quarter, for three quarters now. In sharp contrast, consumer confidence levels have almost always been higher in the big cities than the rest of the country. It’s in these big cities that most of the business decisions are taken, where often the first signs of economic progress or decline are visible. What does the seeming contradiction of confidence and nervousness tell you? It tells me that people believe the economy is indestructible, despite the endless shenanigans of the people in power.

These aren’t just my opinions. Nor are they emotions or attacks. These are the pleas for action by the respondents interviewed each week by Roy Morgan Single Source, the country’s largest syndicated survey. With over 6,000 new respondents interviewed each quarter, the annual total exceeds 25,000 per annum. The findings are projected to reflect over 85 percent of the population 14 years and older.

It would be yet another grave error in judgement to continue the attacks on democratic institutions, either via the enactment of new repressive laws or religious by-laws, or indirectly via the visible support offered to lawless groups by the highest authorities. Churches aren’t meant for burning. Mouths aren’t meant to be silenced. Even some tokens of leadership would reassure well-wishers, in Indonesia and beyond.

The writer can be contacted at debnath.guharoy@roymorgan.com