The political environment has grown even more favorable for
Republicans and rockier for President Barack Obama and his Democrats over the
long primary season that just ended with a bang.
With November's midterm congressional matchups set and the
general election campaign beginning in earnest Wednesday, an Associated
Press-GfK poll found that more Americans say the country is headed in the wrong
direction than did before the nomination contests got under way in February.
Also, more now disapprove of the job Obama is doing. And more now want to see
Republicans in control of Congress rather than the Democrats who now run the
House of Representatives and Senate.
Fueling voter anger is an unemployment rate that's hovered
near 10 percent all year despite efforts by Obama and fellow Democrats to
accelerate the economic recovery.
The country's pessimism benefits the out-of-power
Republicans, which clearly has enthusiasm on its side. Far more people voted
this year in Republicans primaries than in Democratic contests, and the
antiestablishment tea party coalition has energized the Republicans even as it
has sprung a series of primary surprises.
Said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: "Turnout
and enthusiasm are off the charts."
In Delaware, a big turnout showed up to vote as tea
party-backed Christine O'Donnell upset a moderate congressman for the Senate
Republican nomination. By most accounts, the outcome diminished Republican
chances of winning former Vice President Joe Biden's seat.
Republicans got their preferred candidate in New Hampshire
as former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte fended off a tea party-supported
candidate by a razor-thin margin.
Overall, it's an extraordinarily dreary backdrop for Obama's
beleaguered party. And with just seven weeks until Election Day, Democrats are
running out of options to mitigate widespread expected losses of House, Senate
and governor's seats from coast to coast on Nov. 2.
In the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi predicted that the
Democrats would keep control. But, underscoring the woes facing Democrats, she
stopped short of the kind of confidence she's shown in past campaigns when her
party had a political tail wind.
Republicans have steadily gained ground on economic issues
and now have a slight advantage on handling the economy, the federal deficit
and taxes. They improved their standing in the past month even as Obama stepped
up his efforts to persuade the public to give Democratic solutions more time to
work.
At the same time, 40 percent of likely voters call
themselves supporters of the anti-tax, anti-establishment tea party movement,
and most of them lean toward Republicans while nearly two-thirds have a deeply
negative impression of Democrats. That means the opposition could be in strong
shape on Nov. 2 if tea party backers turn out and vote Republican. That's what
they've been doing so far this year: The movement can claim wins in at least
seven Republican Senate races, a handful of Republican gubernatorial contests
and dozens of House primary campaigns.
Also, Obama's job-performance standing on the economy is at
a low point, and a majority of people now say they will consider their feelings
about him when they vote for Congress this fall.
The House is most at risk of changing hands.
Upward of 75 races are competitive, most held by Democrats.
Republicans need to gain 40 seats to seize control.
Most vulnerable are conservative-to-moderate Democrats in
districts Sen. John McCain won in the 2008 presidential campaign, and other
Democrats who rode Obama's coattails, benefiting from participation spikes
among young and minority voters.
The opposition needs a 10-seat gain for Senate control, a
tall order.
Republicans and Democrats alike say that quest got even more
difficult Tuesday in Delaware when the conservative O'Donnell won the
Republican nomination. Democrats had all but written off that Senate seat until
O'Connell's win, and many Republicans agree it will be tough for her to pull
off a November victory.
The Republicans are still virtually assured to pick up a
North Dakota seat. Republicans also could overtake vulnerable incumbent Sens.
Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Michael Bennett in Colorado, as well as Senate
Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada. Among other Democratic-held seats:
Republicans are leading comfortably in Indiana and Pennsylvania, and
Republicans are competitive in Illinois, Connecticut, California, Washington,
Wisconsin and West Virginia.
Republicans also have an advantage in states where they are
defending seats they now hold that are coming open: Florida, Ohio, Kentucky,
Missouri and New Hampshire.
With less than two months to go, Democrats are focused on
slowing a Republican wave that could give the opposition control of Congress
and on trying to fire up their deeply dispirited Democratic base while stemming
the flood of independents who now are leaning strongly toward the Republicans.
For now at least, Republicans are simply selling themselves
as something other than the status quo. And, if the antiestablishment results
of the primary season are any measure, it may just work.
The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Sept. 8 to 13, 2010 by GfK
Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and
cell phone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide, and has a margin of
sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for all adults, 4.5 for
registered voters and 5.7 for likely voters.
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Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson, AP Deputy
Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and
AP Writers Jennifer C. Kerr, Laurie Kellman and Natasha Metzler contributed to
this report.
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Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com
