Obama is coming ‘home’ after a shellacking

President Barack Obama arrives here today while he is going through the most difficult stage (politically) of his presidency after the Democrats suffered the largest loss of seats in mid-term elections in recent US history. But for Obama, having just experienced a “shellacking”, spending time in a place he once called home might be something that he needs the most.

Since taking office Obama has actually succeeded with three big issues: Healthcare reform, a depression-preventing stimulus and financial services reform. But last week those were overshadowed by voters’ deepening angst about unemployment. The majority of voters sent Obama and the Democrats a clear message that their main concerns were for jobs and the economy.

With Republican gains in the mid-term elections, the biggest challenge for Obama going forward is to address economic concerns effectively while at the same time finding ways of working with the new (possibly hostile) Congress.  

This will surely not be easy. The Republicans will most likely pressure him to reduce spending, cut taxes and repeal some of the provisions in the healthcare law. To make matters worse, Obama still needs to pursue some items from his agenda such as immigration reform and the cap-and-trade legislation, which require cooperation with Congress.

Some have been quick to suggest that Obama duplicate Bill Clinton’s legendary 1994 strategy of “triangulation” by moving to the center of the political spectrum and adopting Republican moderate policies. Essentially, some of those policies, such as a balanced budget, smaller government and fewer regulations, are still relevant for the Republicans today.

But in order to pull a Bill Clinton and repeat his successes, it will not only require the ability to be politically cunning but also to repackage his agenda. Clinton dismayed his liberal supporters and aides who saw it merely as a trick to win re-election. In order to balance the budget, Clinton had to sacrifice some key social programs. And it seemed relatively easy for Clinton to adopt those moderate Republican policies as he had led the centrist Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) prior to running for president in 1992.

Obama, on the other hand, is someone with deep political convictions, which could make it hard for him to adjust his agenda.

“I’d rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president,” he said in early 2010. Obama viewed the 2008 election not on only as a mandate to fix the economy, but also to build “a new foundation” for America. This clearly was the reason why he chose to pursue healthcare reform early on in his presidency against the advice of his key advisers, as the issue was not at the top of the priority list for most of the American people.

Going into the mid-term elections, Obama was already facing a political dilemma. He disenchanted his early, core supporters on the left for not aggressively pursuing progressive agendas and for selling out to Wall Street. At the same time, some suggest his healthcare reform and big spending policies alienated the independents and moderate Republicans who had voted for him in 2008. This may or may not be true. But for sure, Obama failed to get the public to take ownership of healthcare reform.

And so, moving forward, Obama needs to improve the economy, while cutting the government’s spending and reigning-in the deficit. That means his administration will have to make major cuts including reductions in social entitlements as well as in defense.

Obama also has to get his party to support legislation that is important to Republican and independent voters. At the same time, he also has to be able to convince the Democratic liberal base in Congress to reach across the aisle. In essence, Obama and the Democrats will have to coax the Republicans toward areas of mutual benefit. But learning from Clinton’s showdown experience with Congress — which led to the government shutdown in 1995 — Obama also needs to stand firm on issues he deems non-negotiable.

One encouraging thing is that since the Republicans will control the House they also have the responsibility to govern, which means they can no longer be the party of “NO”. If there is gridlock in Congress, the American people will also blame the Republicans, just as they blamed the Republicans back in 1994 for the government’s shutdown.

Since the economy is at the top of voters’ list of priorities, Obama needs to demonstrate that his foreign policy has a direct link to job creation back home. And during his two-day visit here, he needs to convince the Indonesian public and business community that forging closer economic relations with the United States will be mutually beneficial.

Indonesia today is a very different place compared to when Obama lived here in his formative years. The country is now the world’s third-largest democracy with a pluralistic tradition in terms of religion and ethnicity. This has made it possible for both Indonesia and the US to forge a comprehensive partnership based on common goals, mutual respect and shared values.

But to take the relations to the next level Obama has to have specific deliverables, both symbolic and substantive.

For Indonesians, we should warmly welcome him today. Obama is not the first US president to come to Indonesia after just suffering huge losses in mid-term elections. After the 1994 mid-term defeats, Clinton came to Jakarta for the APEC Summit and subsequently improved the economy, balanced the budget and ultimately won a re-election in 1996. Will Obama follow Clinton’s path to success?

The man who arrives today is clearly not the Messiah a lot of people expected he would be. But Obama has proven he can break the racial barriers to accomplish one seemingly impossible goal: being elected president of the most powerful country in the world by a white majority. That kind of audacity should be a source of inspiration for young Indonesians. Anybody, regardless of race, religion or ethnicity could also become president here in Indonesia.

The writer, currently deputy chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN), was an APSA congressional fellow in 2002-2003.