T

he recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan may halve Indonesia’s volume of exported goods due to lowered capacity at several main ports in Japan damaged by the massive disaster, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) forecasts.

BPS chairman Rusman Heriawan said Friday the total export volume might halve to 19.5 billion kilograms from 39 billion kilograms while the exports value might be cut by 25 percent to US$1.25 billion in March versus $1.66 billion in February (non-oil and gas).

“Post-Japan tsunami, after March 11, the slide in exports has been moderate, falling 25 percent in March by value and 50 percent by volume. Ports were not operating as usual,” he told a press briefing at his office referencing the latest data from the Indonesian customs and excise directorate general.

Japan is Indonesia’s number one export destination, accounting for 16.34 percent of overall exports of $157.73 billion, with the total value of exports amounting to $25.78 billion in 2010, BPS data shows.

Indonesia’s export products are delivered to more than 60 ports in Japan, but the 8.9-magnitude offshore earthquake — Japan’s most powerful in recorded history — followed by a tsunami that killed thousands of people, has crippled several ports, especially in the eastern part of the country.

“Almost all exports activities to ports in the eastern part of the country fell in March. In Sendai alone, the exports value fell 50 percent from $10.2 million in February to $5.6 million in March,” Rusman said.

Deddy Saleh, director general for foreign trade at the Trade Ministry, said the decline might continue for six months or more.

“Exports of certain commodities, such as rubber, needed by industries impacted by the disaster, such as the automotive industry, may be disrupted,” he said. However, he added, Indonesia could export other goods needed in the reconstruction process in Japan, including cement, wood products and coal.

Deddy said beside exports, imports of automotive and electronic parts and components would also likely decrease. “This is what we need to worry about since the component supply here may only last for two or three months.”

Japan is Indonesia’s largest export destination with total exports amounting to $16.97 billion from last year’s total imports of $135.61 billion.

Despite less trading activity between Indonesia and Japan expected in the coming months, Indonesia’s overall trade balance will not be disrupted because there is still indication of an increase in exports to other countries in March, Rusman said.

Up to February this year Indonesia’s trade balance booked a surplus of $4.45 billion after posting a $2.4 billion surplus in February alone, as exports totaled $14.4 billion and imports amounted to $12 billion.

“Compared to January of this year, exports fell 1.42 percent. This is common because there are only 28 days in February compared to regular months,” Rusman said, adding that when compared to February 2011, exports increased by 28.94 percent. Other than Japan, the US and China were the country’s main exports destinations in February.

Imports reached a 4.47 percent increase compared to January and a 26.31 percent increase compared to February the previous year. Indonesia’s main import source remained the same as of February: China, Japan and Singapore. (lnd)