Insight: Thai elections: Time to respect democracy

As predicted, the Thai elections on Sunday ended with a landslide victory for the Pheu Thai Party led by Yingluck Shinawatra, the youngest sister of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Pheu Thai secured 265 of the 500 seats in parliament, a result clearly demonstrating the popularity of Thaksin and a clear mandate for Yingluck to become Thailand’s first female prime minister.

The challenge for Thailand now is how to transform the results of the elections into a new beginning for the restoration of democracy and stability in Thailand. Three good signs immediately emerged as the results of the elections became clear. First, outgoing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva immediately conceded defeat and expressed his party’s readiness to play a role in the opposition. Second, the powerful Thai Army also declared it would remain neutral and would accept the results of the elections. Third, Yingluck also maintained that her first priority as new prime minister was to seek reconciliation in Thailand’s divided society.

These three developments are indeed encouraging and should serve as valuable political capital for Thailand. However, the landslide victory, the plan for political reconciliation and the promise by the Army not to intervene are not enough to guarantee that Thai politics will soon return to normal and that the future of democracy is assured. There are at least three crucial issues that will define the trajectory of Thai politics in the next few months.

First, how the new government will try to achieve its reconciliation agenda will be a critical factor. A crucial issue would be about the fate of ousted PM Shinawatra.

Suggestions that he might be pardoned by his sister have already created uneasiness among the “yellow shirt” faction and circles of the military. In this regard, any reconciliation plan that would include the fate of Thaksin at this stage is bound to create a new division within Thai politics.

Second, the Thai Army remains a powerful factor in Thai politics, and it has often made similar promises in the past. Even though Thailand has become a democracy since the early 1980s, the military still retains a formidable political influence and role. Unlike Indonesia that has by and large succeeded in removing the military’s political role, the Thai military has not relinquished its political role. It was the military that ousted Thaksin from power in a coup in 2006, a “tradition” that Thailand needs to get rid of if it is to be a genuine democracy.

Third, how Thai politics would evolve in the post-election era would also depend on the ability of Yingluck to prove to her critics that she would not rule on behalf of her brother. It is likely that as prime minister, Yingluck would continue many policies associated with Thaksin.

While she would no doubt seek advice and guidance from Thaksin on many issues, it is likely that Thaksin himself would try to avoid the impression that his sister would act as his puppet. In other words, the biggest challenge for Yingluck is how to become a prime minister in her own right.

There is no easy solution to these challenges. Political bitterness and deep division between red and yellow shirts in the Thai body politic over the last five years, is not easily left behind and reconciled. However, democracy needs to be respected and the new government needs to be given a chance to work. The elections have been conducted in a fair and free manner and the Thai people have spoken loud and clear. Their voices need to be respected.

Therefore, whatever the future trajectory of Thai politics, many of Thailand’s friends in the region and beyond will hope that it is time for Thailand to return to the path of democracy. Unconstitutional change of government needs to be avoided. As a fellow member of ASEAN, Indonesia expects a lot from Thailand in ensuring the creation of a democratic ASEAN. Southeast Asia will in turn benefit greatly from Thailand’s return to normalcy as a stable and genuine democracy.

The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta