Commentary: A damp squib Cabinet: Reshuffling the deck, not the cards

New start?: President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (fourth left) makes a statement about the Cabinet reshuffle from his home in Cikeas in Bogor, West Java, as Vice President Boediono (fifth left) and Yudhoyono's coalition partners look on. As president with twice an absolute majority, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono did not have to accept the political hand dealt to him.

Yet he persisted with a shabby deck comprised mostly of jokers and few aces.

Consequently, in a substantive yet deficient exercise we are getting what we expected: A soon-to-be announced Cabinet lineup that stimulates neither confidence nor hope, a much acclaimed reshuffle where lassitude seems more prudent than performance.

A deluge of comments and analysis are forthcoming, but a postmortem can already be conducted even before the undertaking is pronounced DOA (dead on arrival).

Cabinet shake-ups are generally used for two purposes: A tool of last resort, or a spark to revitalize impetus.

In the former, they are used for many different circumstances for a regime usually under electoral or political siege by shoring-up coalition support or placating criticism from the public.

If anyone believes that all the colors of Yudhoyono’s rainbow coalition now meld harmoniously is a tad color impaired as a brighter shade of yellow contrasts a darker blue and fading green.

In the days of ancient kingdoms, it was common for sultans to hold court as lesser princes prostrated to the gathering display of power as favors were bandied in exchange. Cikeas is no palace, and Yudhoyono is closer to a political pauper than a broker king.

Yet he enjoyed the pomp of 230 million people hanging on his every word and gesture over the past fortnight. Gestures which failed to project a figure of strength. From an intriguing mystery, the script has since become a cheesy soap opera where the protagonist is unveiled as the clumsy sidekick.

The key to any leadership, new or old, is the level of confidence the public has in it.

A reshuffle would have been ideal to spur momentum, confidence and, most importantly, hope.

Even before the lineup is announced does anyone believe that a surge of confidence will emerge from this reshuffle?

Does it make the administration stronger?

How is confidence bred when one of Indonesia’s most respected economists is likely to be shifted to be minister of tourism?

Or when a new minister’s primary credentials is that his party affiliation and ethnic minority (from the western most province) meet the quota of the previous Cabinet?

Javanese are known to appreciate life’s cosmological balance, politicians are understood to trade favors, but the selection process for the current regime boggles the mind.

Selecting candidates as if he were interviewing a household nanny, the President has been caught up in the pointless exercise of shorting more than 10 deputy ministers.

Name one leader in history who has seemed more preoccupied with selecting an army of deputies as the seeming solution to the government’s problems.

For a man who always seems so insistent on being restricted within the corridors of the law when asked to take bold initiative, Yudhoyono was not shy last week in hastily amending a 2009 regulation which requires a higher grade rank as a prerequisite for civil servants to be appointed as deputy minister.

Usually the eagerness to change established seen as an inconvenience is the first symptom that one has been in power for too long.

Déjà vu emerges as many recall the letdown upon hearing the lineup of last New Order Cabinet.

The last hurrah of Soeharto’s final months.

This is expected to be Yudhoyono’s grand spectacle. His final throw of the dice to leave a legacy of being an effective president.

Markets may not respond negatively to the unfolding events, but it is hard to see how they can be so bullish either.

Perhaps they know an open secret: The key is not with the ministers but in the boldness of leadership which firmly guides.

It may be mere coincidence but an interesting poll released over the weekend found that while Yudhoyono’s popularity has waned further, Vice President Boediono’s approval rating had plummeted even further.

The message?

With Boediono faring worse and no recognized alternative leader from civil society on the horizon —as was the case in 1998 — this nation is left with no recourse of a “higher” reshuffle other than playing with the same deck for the next three years.