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s the island enters the rainy season this month, avian flu experts are concerned about the possible spread of the deadly virus as it can flourish in humid environments.

Bird flu can be more active in high humidity, and the likelihood of transmission between poultry, and from poultry to humans, is therefore higher in the rainy season.

“In high humidity, the virus is able to survive a little bit longer. Besides, in the transition period between the dry and the rainy seasons, poultry easily get sick and are therefore more vulnerable to the virus,” said Ngurah Mahardika, a professor at Udayana University who recently conducted research on avian flu.

However, the weather is not the only aspect influencing the spread of the virus. The virus does not survive in the air for long, but does in the body of a live bird as a host, he added.

“It would require proximity of less than 10 meters between a sick bird and a human for the virus to spread. A person can also easily be infected when in contact with the body fluids of sick poultry. This can also happen in the dry season, not only in the rainy season,” he said.

“The virus survives for less than 24 hours in temperatures of less than 20 degrees Celsius, but the temperature in Bali is much higher than that.

“However, the public should not worry too much. As long as they don’t come into contact with sick poultry or with meat from sick poultry, they will not be infected,” he added.

Mahardika warned that the worst-case scenario would be human-to-human transmission.

“Actually, limited human-to-human transmission has occurred in other countries, such as Hong Kong, Vietnam and Cambodia, but only among people related by blood. But we haven’t found such cases in Bali,” he said.

What would be a worry is the mutation of the virus, and certain conditions under which the virus would have a bigger chance of flourishing and multiplying.

The head of the Bali Husbandry Agency, Putu Sumantra, earlier said that another outbreak might happen due to the current transition period between the dry and the rainy seasons, which could see a resurgence of the virus.

“An outbreak could occur due to the increasing number of poultry being transported to the island,” he said.

Although the agency has strictly forbidden the transportation of poultry from outside of Bali, there have been rampant cases of smuggling due to higher demand and higher prices here.

As the risk of avian flu is increasing, Mahardika called on the public to remain alert when buying live poultry or poultry meat, especially Balinese people who buy it as an offering in a religious ceremony.

“Many cases have occurred in areas where a major religious ceremony was held. If not necessary, people shouldn’t buy live poultry or meat, unless they buy it from a trusted slaughterhouse or breeder,” he said.